Market analyst Ali Martinez’s chart shows Dogecoin testing key support in a long-term channel, with three potential rebound targets.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has joined other top-cap crypto assets in a notable market downturn, slipping well below the $0.40 level seen in January. As of today, Dogecoin trades at $0.1645, recording a -4.04% drop over the last 24 hours and a -6.23% decline in the past week. 

The memecoin’s downward trend has been consistent, mirroring broader market behavior, but some analysts are now highlighting major technical indicators that suggest a shift in momentum may be approaching.

Dogecoin Long-Term Channel Structure

One of these observations centers on Dogecoin’s behavior within a long-term ascending channel visible on a logarithmic weekly price chart dating back to 2014. Ali Martinez’s chart features three critical trendlines—bottom, mid, and top—forming a structured channel that DOGE has historically respected. 

#Dogecoin $DOGE continues to hold above the lower boundary of this channel. A spike in demand here could fuel a rally toward the mid or upper range!

Join me in this trade by signing up to @coinexcom using my referral link https://t.co/73n8mWavUX pic.twitter.com/G92NGsNqZL

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 30, 2025

Notably, Dogecoin is currently at the lower boundary of this channel. The analyst observes that this level has acted as strong dynamic support in past cycles, typically leading to a bounce in price. 

“A spike in demand here could fuel a rally toward the mid or upper range,” Martinez suggested.

From a Fibonacci retracement standpoint, a rebound from the current range may push the price past $0.45 in the short term. Beyond that, the midline target lies above $2.4, while the upper resistance aligns with the $7 mark, which corresponds to the 1.414 Fibonacci extension level. 

Potential Year-Four Rally For DOGE

Meanwhile, another analyst has drawn attention to Dogecoin’s cyclical price behavior, particularly in the fourth year of previous market cycles. 

By aligning historical monthly charts from 2017 and 2021 with the current cycle, the analyst marks a phase near the end of a defined range, represented by adjusted green and red lines. In both earlier cycles, Dogecoin exhibited notable upward movement after entering this range.

According to this perspective, the upward movement may begin as early as next month. However, the analyst adds that an immediate surge is not guaranteed, though the likelihood of significant momentum could increase as the year progresses. 

In both past fourth-year cycles, Dogecoin ended the year at approximately 37 times its starting price. Applying this historical trend, the analysis points to a potential daily closing price of $11.71 on December 31, 2025.