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Arthur Hayes: Even if U.S. stocks continue to fall due to tariffs and other factors, it is believed that BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of the year
七彩烟霞
七彩烟霞
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趋势分析师
04-01 10:21
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1. BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes认为BitMEX价值=技术+法定货币流动性 ,相关技术短期内变化不大。 2. 比特币交易仅基于市场对未来法定货币供应量的预期,若其对美联储从国债量化紧缩转向量化宽松分析正确,比特币上月触及76500美元局部低点,年底将迈向25万美元。 3. 以黄金为例,若要在比特币先触及76500美元还是110000美元之间打赌,会选后者。 4. 即便美股因关税、盈利预期崩溃或外国需求下降而下跌,仍相信比特币会继续攀升,Maelstrom谨慎配置资本,不使用杠杆,小额购买。在90000美元至76500美元区间各价位都有买入比特币和山寨币。 5. 资本配置速度依预测准确率调整,仍坚信年底比特币能达到25万美元 。
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest blog post: "BitMEX Value = Technology + Fiat Liquidity, this technology works and won't change any significant in the near future, for better or worse. So Bitcoin's trading is based solely on the market's expectations of future fiat money supply. If my analysis of the Fed's main turn from Treasury QT to QE is correct, Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month and now we're starting to move towards $250,000 at the end of the year. Of course, this is not an exact science, but if I take gold as an example, if I have to do that, if I think Bitcoin will hit $76,500 or 110,000 first. Bet between dollars, I will bet on the latter. Even if the U.S. stock market continues to fall due to tariffs, earnings expectations collapse or foreign demand declines, I still believe that Bitcoin will continue to climb. Recognizing the pros and cons of it, Maelstrom is deploying capital with caution. We don’t use leverage, and we make small purchases relative to the size of our total portfolio. We have been buying bitcoin and altcoins at all levels between $90,000 and $76,500. The pace of capital deployment will accelerate or slow down based on the accuracy of my forecasts. I still believe that by the end of the year, Bitcoin can reach $250,000.”
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