TL;DR

• Historical trends, post-halving momentum, and potential US interest rate cuts are aligning in favor of a BTC rebound in Q2.
• The rising number of whales could further boost market sentiment and drive renewed demand for the primary cryptocurrency.

What Could Play a Positive Role?

Bitcoin (BTC) started the year on the right foot and surged to an all-time high of almost $110,000 in mid-January. Its price record coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration as America’s 47th president. Since then, though, the asset has been on an evident downtrend, briefly tumbling below $77,000 in March and currently trading at around $84,000 (per CoinGecko’s data).

Some important factors, though, suggest that BTC might experience a substantial resurgence during the year’s second quarter. 

For starters, let’s examine how the asset performed during Q2 of previous years. Coinglass’ data shows that BTC has made solid gains in seven out of the last twelve second quarters. 

The halving that occurred in the spring of 2024 may also play a role, as Q2 in the year after the event saw a major surge once. BTC’s valuation skyrocketed by over 120% in the second quarter of 2017, but it was in the red in 2013 and 2021.

The only two times the asset started the year with two consecutive red quarters were during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. Given the fact that BTC ended Q1 2025 with an 11.82% decline, history suggests a different trajectory in Q2.

The second element that could lead to a BTC rally in the following months is the potential interest rate cut in the United States. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark unchanged following its FOMC meetings this year. 

However, there are some hints that the American central bank will lower the percentage in some of its next gatherings. According to Polymarket, the odds of that happening during the FOMC meeting in June are around 53%.

Reducing interest rates makes borrowing money cheaper. This, in turn, can push investors toward riskier assets with higher return potential, like BTC. 

The leading digital asset could also receive a boost in the event of a peace treaty or some de-escalation between Ukraine and Russia. Recall that the two countries have been at war since February 2022. However, American President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he will try to negotiate ceasefires and mediate an end to the conflict.

Last month, he held talks with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a potential peace deal between the enemies. The conversations failed to produce the expected result, as the road toward peace is expected to be long. Nevertheless, positive developments on this front could lead to less market uncertainty and future gains.

Bonus: The Return of the Whales

Another factor that might contribute to a BTC rally in the short term is the recent activity among whales. As CryptoPotato reported, the number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has surged to 1,993 – the highest level since the end of last year.

An increase in such large holders generally signals strong confidence and potential upward price momentum. However, traders should keep in mind that if whales decide to sell en masse, they could flood the market with excess supply and trigger a substantial price drop, especially if demand fails to keep up.