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比特币已实现市值增长但实际市值停滞,资金流入难以推升资产价格
徐冲浪
徐冲浪
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数字货币大师
04-05 23:34
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4 月 5 日,CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju 发文表示,比特币牛市周期结束,判断依据是链上数据的关键指标已实现市值(Realized Cap),其运作逻辑为当 BTC 转入某钱包时视为「买入」,转出时视为「卖出」,通过计算每个钱包的平均成本基础 × 持仓量,可得出全网已实现市值,该指标反映通过真实链上活动进入比特币市场的总资本量。


真是市值与基于交易平台最后成交价的市值不同,当某人仅买入 10 美元 BTC 时,市值增幅远不止 10 美元,价格实际由订单簿中的买卖压力平衡决定。低卖压环境中少量买盘即可显著推高价格,在高卖压环境中即使大额买入也难以拉升价格,比如比特币接近 10 万美元时出现的量价背离。


对于牛熊周期基于以下判断框架,熊市信号为已实现市值增长但市值停滞或下跌,代表资金流入却无法推升价格,是当前市场阶段的特征。牛市信号为已实现市值平稳但市值暴涨,少量新资金即可驱动价格上涨。尽管存在部分资金流难以追踪的情况,但主要资本流动均会体现在链上,当前数据明确指向熊市信号,虽然卖压可能随时缓解,但历史数据显示真正的趋势反转至少需要 6 个月,短期反弹概率较低。

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