On April 5, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted a statement that the Bitcoin bull market cycle ended and the judgment is that the key indicators of on-chain data have achieved market value (Realized Cap). The operating logic is that when BTC is transferred to a wallet, it is considered "buy" and "sell" when it is transferred out. By calculating the average cost basis × holding volume of each wallet, it can be concluded that the entire network has achieved market value. This indicator reflects the total amount of capital entering the Bitcoin market through real on-chain activities.

It's really different from the market value based on the final transaction price of the trading platform. When someone buys only $10 BTC, the market value increases far more than $10, and the price is actually determined by the balance of buying and selling pressure in the order book. A small amount of buying in a low selling pressure environment can significantly push up the price, and even if you buy in a large amount, it is difficult to raise the price, such as the volume-price divergence that occurs when Bitcoin is close to $100,000.

For the bull and bear cycle, based on the following judgment framework, the bear market signal is that the market value has been achieved but the market value has stagnated or fallen, which means that the inflow of funds cannot push up the price, which is a characteristic of the current market stage. The bull market signal is that the market value has been achieved but the market value has soared, and a small amount of new funds can drive the price to rise. Although some capital flows are difficult to track, the main capital flows will be reflected in the chain. The current data clearly point to a bear market signal. Although the selling pressure may ease at any time, historical data shows that a real trend reversal will take at least 6 months, and the probability of a short-term rebound is low.