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高盛:若经济真陷入衰退,美联储明年恐将降息200个基点
暴哥正能量
暴哥正能量
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趋势研究员
04-07 11:09
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4 月 7 日,高盛调整了其对美联储降息的预期,认为如果经济衰退来袭,美联储进一步放宽政策的风险更高。高盛现预计美联储将在 6 月份开始一系列降息——比之前预测的 7 月份要早——作为预防性宽松周期的一部分。


在假设美国避免衰退的基本情况下,美联储将连续三次降息 25 个基点,使联邦基金利率降至 3.5%-3.75% 的区间。不过,高盛预计,如果经济真的陷入衰退,美联储将采取更为激进的政策回应,明年将降息约 200 个基点。


考虑到经济衰退的可能性增加,该机构目前的加权预测显示,2025 年总共将降息 130 个基点,高于此前的 105 个基点。截至上周五收盘,这一前景与当前市场预期基本一致。

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