A crypto strategist known for making timely Bitcoin calls says he sees a path for BTC to remain in bull territory, amid surging bearish momentum.

In a new strategy session, pseudonymous trader Cheds tells his 49,800 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin bears have had the upper hand ever since BTC broke below its crucial support level at $90,000.

According to Cheds, Bitcoin bulls must now defend BTC’s next line of support to avoid a potential repeat of the 2021 market collapse.

“I still remain in the camp that we still have the momentum overhang from losing [$90,000] support, and it’s very likely we’re going to continue down and tag $72,000. And that’s my base case…

I just think it’s most likely we’re going to tag the prior range. What we want to see in Bitcoin is we want to see it hold the SMA (simple moving average) 50… We know that’s important because that was something that played a big role in the 2021 top when the price started to lose that [SMA] 50. We don’t want to see that happen.”

In December 2021, Bitcoin went below the SMA50 and lost about 66% of its value, melting down from $48,000 to $16,000 in less than a year.

On how Bitcoin can potentially avoid witnessing a similar fate, Cheds says,

“You can do that with a nice wick… A nice wick below the Bollinger Band and a recovery, like an intraweek recovery would be nice, where we close back up above the SMA50, we tag and test and hold this prior level ($72,000), then we can continue with the trend, the more high time frame trend which is bullish…

So the best case for me would be a very quick test and recovery, like a V recovery, an overreaction move. Something like we had perhaps [in August 2024], the dip below and the recovery, so we could test the prior range without losing the MA50. That would be the best case in my view.”

A wick is a thin line that extends above or below a candlestick’s body. In the trader’s best-case scenario, a lower wick would suggest tremendous buying pressure.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $75,795, down over 7% on the day.

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