On April 8, Cryptoquant analyst theKriptolik released an analysis pointing out that Ethereum has fallen below its "realized price" of around $2,300. The "realized price" is the price of each Ethereum when it was transferred through the blockchain. It is one of the indicators for recalculating the value of the cryptocurrency market. The average value of all transaction prices is the realized price. Compared with the current market price, it can more truly reflect the average holding cost of investors, which usually forms a key support or resistance level.

When ETH falls below the realization price, it means that most holders of the currency are in a floating loss state. In times of market panic (such as the present), it is very easy to trigger a "salary-cutting" selling. If a large-scale sell-off occurs, it marks the beginning of the "surrender phase" and a collective collapse of investor confidence. Historical data shows that falling below the realization price usually comes at the end of a major downtrend. On-chain data shows that when the ETH price falls below the realization price, there is an 80% probability that it will appear in the long-term bottom area, and the average rebound in the next 6 months will reach 217%. At the same time, the realization price falls below the realization price has also been proven historically to be the strategic accumulation range for long-term investors. In the short term, Ethereum's fall below the price reflects the market's panic, but from the perspective of historical cycles, the current price may be building a rare gold pit.