BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes identified two macro developments he believes could soon trigger a Bitcoin surge, looking beyond the immediate market volatility caused by U.S. tariff policies. 

His focus centers on Federal Reserve interest rate cut decisions and, more pointedly, a possible devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.

Spotlight on Potential Chinese Yuan Devaluation

Hayes emphasized via X that a devaluation of China’s currency by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could provide Bitcoin holders with major upside catalysts – what he termed “yachtzee ingredients.” He argued this isn’t theoretical, drawing parallels to past events.

Related: Trump Demands Fed Rate Cuts—Could Bitcoin Be the Biggest Winner?

History: China Capital Flight has Fueled Past BTC Rallies

Hayes recounted historical instances where Chinese currency policy appeared to drive Bitcoin demand. He noted periods 2013, 2015 (when the PBOC significantly devalued the Yuan against the USD), and 2017 (following crackdowns on capital outflows) saw Chinese investors reportedly turn to Bitcoin, seeking a hedge against Yuan weakness or a channel to bypass capital controls. 

Related: China Could Be the Next Big Catalyst for a Bitcoin Price Surge

Bitcoin’s price appreciated significantly during these periods, marking historical milestones. Hayes believes this pattern could repeat, considering China’s major role in digital assets.

Fed Rate Cuts Also a BTC Booster

In addition to the Yuan scenario, Hayes cited potential Federal Reserve easing as another key trigger. Should the Fed cut interest rates – perhaps spurred by economic pressures from tariffs or other factors – the resulting increase in market liquidity could fuel demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, as seen in previous cycles.

Current Market Context

These potential catalysts surface while Bitcoin navigates the effects of the Trump administration’s tariff regime, which has caused significant international market disruption. 

Bitcoin currently trades around $76,561 after Monday’s sharp drop. Hayes believes one of these two macro events (Fed easing or Yuan devaluation) will ultimately provide a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price. He also plans a future essay detailing how a potential USDCNY exchange rate move towards 10.00 could act as a “super bazooka” for Bitcoin.