Author: Asher,

The US tariff policy has ushered in a new turning point. This morning, Trump announced that he decided to impose a 90-day "suspension period" on these countries, considering that more than 75 countries actively negotiated with the United States on trade, currency and tariff-related matters, during which the tariffs will be significantly lowered to 10%, but a 125% tariff will be imposed on China immediately. Under such a change in tariff policies, US stocks and cryptocurrency markets have soared.

• OKX real-time market shows that as of today, around 8:00 (all the following are taken to this time point) BTC broke through the highest level of US$83,500, temporarily reported US$82,600, with a 24-hour increase of 8.23%;
• In addition to BTC, ETH broke through the highest level of US$1,680, currently temporarily reported US$1,670, with a 24-hour increase of 13.27%; SOL broke through the US$120 mark in a short period of time, currently temporarily reported US$119, with a 24-hour increase of 12.60%;
• Other mainstream altcoins have also seen sharp rises. Among the top 100 currencies with market value, HYPE broke through US$14, with a 25.9% increase in 24 hours, temporarily reaching US$14.01; S broke through US$0.5, with a 24 hours increase in 24 hours, temporarily reaching US$0.5002; PEPE broke through US$0.000007, with a 24 hours increase in 17.5%, temporarily reaching US$0.000007;
• In the U.S. stock market, as of the close of the day, the three major stock indexes rose across the board, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 7.87%, the largest single-day increase since March 24, 2020. The S&P 500 closed up 9.52%, its biggest single-day gain since October 28, 2008. The Nasdaq closed up 12.16%, the largest single-day gain since January 3, 2001 and the second largest increase in history. The Russell 2000 index closed up 8.66%, the largest single-day gain since March 24, 2020;
• Affected by the overall upward trend, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also risen rapidly. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of crypto has exceeded US$2.7 trillion, up 6.2% in 24 hours;
• In terms of derivative trading, Coinglass data shows that the entire network has been liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which the long position was liquidated in US$214 million and the short position was liquidated in US$375 million. In terms of currency, BTC liquidated $235 million and ETH liquidated $167 million.

The suspension of tariffs is just a small breath, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment remains strong

After Trump released the latest tariff policy, many traditional financial analysts have also expressed their attitudes and relevant opinions on it. At present, although the market rebounds in the short term, most analysts and observers generally point out that this "probation" tariff policy does not really eliminate uncertainty, but may bring more chaos, and is even regarded as a political expedient operation rather than a rational economic decision. The following are some representative views:

U.S. Senate Minority Leader: U.S. government is like a joke, and the cabinet is difficult to take on the heavy responsibility of governing the country

"The administration under Trump is chaotic, he changes every day, his advisers quarrel with each other and cannot accept such a chaotic cabinet to govern a country. Trump seems to be playing a game of red and green light. He sometimes gives the U.S. economy red light, sometimes gives the green light, and I have never seen such a chaotic government action."

Chief analyst at Oxford Economics in New York: "Suspend" or "reduced", Trump's wording is vague

"From the way President Trump is speaking, we are not entirely clear whether it is really a moratorium (tariff) or just a reduction of reciprocal tariffs to 10%. But anyway, it's clear that Trump has abandoned some of the worst tariff threats here, and I think that's obviously a sustainable net positive for risky assets. One thing it doesn't do is to remove uncertainty, which is because tariff levels seem to change every day."

INTERACTIVE BROKERS Chief Market Strategist: Doubt whether U.S. tariffs will recover within 90 days, uncertainty has decreased but not disappeared

"Trump's suspension of tariffs is definitely an accident, given that the U.S. government has been saying they won't lift tariffs and that tariffs are not negotiable. It's a very understandable relief rebound. We now have to doubt whether tariffs will resume within 90 days. This will hinder businesses from making plans for the near future and providing guidance for the current quarter. Uncertainty has been reduced, but it has not completely disappeared."

FX Executive Director: Trump suspends 90-day tariffs only bring more uncertainty

Regarding Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension of peer tariffs, FX executive director Amarjit Sahota said, "There is a huge volatility in the market right now, especially the stock market, and responded well to the news. But the question that followed is: Why do we see this kind of "probation" today, is it really a good idea? Personally, I don't think it's a good idea: a 90-day suspension will only bring more uncertainty to 90 days. It looks like a very bad policy decision, or at least a bad plan or execution."

Chief Market Strategist of Philadelphia National Investment Management Group: Nasdaq rose 8% in 20 minutes, no less than 8% health

Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Philadelphia National Investment Management Group, said, "Trump's suspension of tariffs is definitely good news because it shows that the negotiations are in good enough that they think that the tasks they need to accomplish through the initial conversation have been done. But I want to make a very important warning because the Nasdaq's 8% rise in 20 minutes is no more healthy than a 8% drop, so I'm very careful right now."

How to go about the future of crypto market?

Arthur Hayes: RMB exchange rate may become the key, and there is still suspense whether China will fight back

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted a statement saying, "This is not the policy response I expected, but it is still a response anyway. The question is: Will China fight back?" At the same time, it pointed out that investors can pay attention to how the People's Bank of China adjusts the RMB exchange rate this Thursday to judge the next direction.

Ali Martinez: If BTC keeps $80,700, it may reach $84,000 to $87,000

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said, "BTC is breaking through the volatile range. If the support level of $80,700 can be held, BTC is expected to rise, and the target may be aimed at $84,000, or even $87,000."

Santiment: The market responds sharply to tariff news, and it is still a temporary relief to the ongoing problem

Analysts of blockchain analytics platform Santiment said that although the latest "tax suspension" policy is positive news that temporarily eases tensions in some markets, it is still a temporary relief of ongoing problems. Just 48 hours ago, the market experienced a "buy rumors and sell facts" response due to a false alarm about the tariff suspension, and immediately after the United States announced on Tuesday that it would impose up to 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, which undoubtedly once again exacerbated the market's disappointment.

Analysts pointed out that the current fundamentals are still blurry and difficult to rely on, and the market relies more on the public's greed and fear as reverse indicators. At these unprecedented times, the market's overreaction to tariff news has become a signal worthy of close attention.

Grayscale Research: Tariffs trigger stagflation shock, which may be beneficial to Bitcoin

"Tariffs bring stagflation shock. Stagflation is often bad for traditional assets but is good for scarce commodities such as gold (and possibly Bitcoin)" said Zach Pandl, director of Grayscale Research.

At present, although some positive news has appeared in the short term, alleviating some market sentiment, the continued uncertainty of tariff issues still puts pressure on the market.