• Whale transfer and on-chain profitability set the stage for a potential upside move.
• Resistance holds strong as network growth stirs, but conviction is still lacking.

Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a notable on-chain movement as 1,220 BTC (worth over $94.5 million) was transferred from Kraken to an unknown wallet, raising eyebrows across the market.

Such massive whale transactions often precede volatility spikes, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. 

At the same time, Bitcoin continues to hover below the psychological $80,000 resistance—an area that may define the direction of the next major move. 

Are most Bitcoin holders in the red?

Unlike earlier bearish sentiment, the latest on-chain data paints a more optimistic picture.

According to the “In/Out of the Money” chart, around 73.53% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit, with only 24.56% underwater.

This indicates that a majority of holders bought Bitcoin at lower levels and are now sitting on substantial gains.

In fact, investor pressure to sell is relatively muted for now, offering the market a solid psychological cushion. However, a rejection at the current price range could still spook those holding smaller unrealized profits.

Can Bitcoin hold the $77K support level?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,175 after a 2.33% decline over the past 24 hours.

Price action remains bearish, confined under a descending trendline while hovering slightly above the $72,000–$75,000 support zone. 

This region has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure, acting as a battleground between bulls and bears.

However, a confirmed move above $83,878 could invalidate the downtrend and set the stage for a move toward $96,000.

Until then, the bearish structure remains intact, and any drop below support could accelerate selling pressure toward lower levels.

Is market sentiment still positive?

The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) was at 0.43, up 0.98% over the past 24 hours, indicating that investors still hold moderate unrealized profits.

While this suggests there is no widespread panic yet, the buffer is thinning, and sideways price action continues to test investor patience. 

If Bitcoin remains stuck below resistance, the sentiment could rapidly flip bearish. Therefore, even a small dip could prompt emotional exits from investors expecting a breakout that fails to materialize.

Are network fundamentals supportive?

Network fundamentals are mixed.

Active addresses have dropped by 8.78% and zero-balance addresses by 14.16%, showing some decline in participation. However, new addresses have risen by 1.22%, suggesting fresh interest is beginning to trickle back in.

Historically, a steady rise in new addresses precedes strong bullish trends. For now, the data shows that while user activity dipped, there is a growing foundation forming beneath the surface.

Taking all of this into consideration, Bitcoin is positioning for a possible relief rally, with over 70% of holders in profit, price holding above support, and new users slowly entering the market.

However, the resistance near $80,000 remains a major hurdle. Unless bulls break above it with conviction, the risk of a local rejection still lingers.

Caution is necessary, but the conditions for a rebound are gradually falling into place.