• 21Shares has joined Bitwise and Grayscale in the U.S. spot DOGE ETF race. 
• DOGE ETF approval odds were above 60% as of this writing. 

On the 9th of April, 21Shares submitted a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), requesting approval to launch a Dogecoin [DOGE] exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In Q1 2025, Grayscale and Bitwise made similar submissions as the race for the first U.S. spot memecoin ETF heats up. 

DOGE ETF approval odds

In February, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas said DOGE ETF approval odds were 75%.

Even the prediction site Polymarket mirrored a similar outlook at that time. Now, bettors on the site were pricing a 64% approval chance for DOGE ETF in 2025. 

However, large players in DOGE markets flashed mixed signals. Miners (red line), for example, have been accumulating since March. They increased holdings from 831 million to 907 million DOGE tokens. This was contrary to their offloading between December and February. 

However, Social Volumes and active users were muted, suggesting that retail wasn’t interested in the memecoin amid the Q1 sell-off. 

But the weak sentiment was also evident amongst the largest wallet holders, with over 1 billion DOGE (blue). Since December, they have dumped their tokens and haven’t changed their strategy as of this writing. 

Since DOGE’s price was too sensitive to this wallet cohort, their dumping could curtail the memecoin’s recovery prospects. 

On the price charts, DOGE erased all U.S. election gains and was back at the November level of $0.15. It is worth noting, however, that the level acted as support in March, but it remains to be seen if it’ll hold in Q2. 

But a crack below it could drag DOGE to $0.10 or $0.06. On the contrary, DOGE bulls could regain the market edge if they reclaim the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA)  above $0.25.