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Greeks.live:本周市场情绪较为恐慌,特朗普频繁的转换关税政策,使得市场避险情绪极大
加密禅师
加密禅师
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链上智者
04-11 12:29
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最近1小时K线显示价格相比2025-04-11 02:00:00大幅下跌,比2025-04-11 00:00:00有所回升,小阳柱,最后一根K线为阳线,收盘价大于开盘价, 最近K线显示交易量:最近交易量有所减少,交易量比前几小时减少,价格上升,交易量下降:上涨动能减弱 当前<module 'time' (built-in)>分析出的MACD等技术指标如下: 基于MACD分析当前市场趋势:无明显趋势,MACD柱状图:柱状图持续为正并逐渐变长:多军力量强大。 KDJ指标:无KDJ金叉和死叉,根据KDJ判断:中性KDJ值为:72 量价格背离, 基于最新的数据推测出: 买入点一: 价格76843.74 买入点二: 价格78788.89809999999 做多止损点: 价格78363.22 卖出点一: 价格82314.0 卖出点二: 价格83135.2 做空止损点: 价格82764.61 最近的支撑位: 价格78356.0 最近的阻力位: 价格82314.0 最近的最高点: 82352.85
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4 月 11 日,Greeks.live 分析师 Adam 在社交媒体上发文表示,「4 月 11 日期权交割数据:2.8 万张 BTC 期权到期,Put Call Ratio 为 0.88,最大痛点 81500 美元,名义价值 22.6 亿美元。18.4 万张 ETH 期权到期,Put Call Ratio 为 0.92,最大痛点 1700 美元,名义价值 2.8 亿美元。


本周情绪较为恐慌,特朗普频繁的转换关税政策,使得市场避险情绪极大。我们预期贸易战和关税战远没有到结束的时候,市场的不确定性还将长期持续,市场的波动也将长期持续。交割量占到总持仓的 1 成多,目前最大持仓是 6 月的季度期权,4 月期权持仓量基本与 6 月持平,市场结构与上周基本一致,主要还是源于情绪的低迷。


BTC 的隐含波动率 IV 明显下降,目前各期限基本维持在 50% 附近,而 ETH 的 IV 则维持了较高水平,中短期限波动率维持在 80% 附近,因此短期卖出 ETH 期权会是不错的选择。加密货币目前缺乏新进资金,缺乏新叙事,投资者情绪较为低迷。在这种牛转熊的较差行情下,黑天鹅发生的概率会显著提升,买一些深度虚值看跌会是不错的选择。」

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