• Bitcoin rebounded by 11% to hit $83,500, defying macroeconomic turmoil and bond market volatility
• Whales and long-term holders have absorbed market pressure, with 100k BTC acquired since March

Less than two weeks after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the U.S market remains highly volatile. The bond market has crashed and Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly jump since 2001. Overall, it appears Trump’s trade war has backfired. Hence, the 90-day pause that followed.

With the broader market struggling, Bitcoin has steadily reclaimed its key resistance zones. This isn’t a coincidence – Big money has driven the cycle, with large wallets (1k-10k BTC) acquiring 100k BTC since March.

Though analysts are bullish, speculating on a parabolic run and calling Bitcoin an emerging “safe haven” might be premature.

What happens when these large holders, sitting on unrealized profits, decide to exit in a volatile market? Are we nearing a market top or a potential sell-off?

Bitcoin defies market expectations

Let’s break down the current state of the U.S economy to understand its impact on Bitcoin. Normally, U.S. bonds and treasury yields (which represent the U.S. government’s borrowing cost) don’t move in lockstep. 

In simple terms, when the bond market declines, yields spike. Economists point to this dynamic as the catalyst behind Trump’s adjustment of his tariff policies. 

On 9 April, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged by approximately 10bps, breaching the 4.5% mark – Its highest level since mid-February. 

Looking ahead to 2025, a large portion of U.S. debt will mature, triggering the need for refinancing. In fact, reports indicate that between $7 trillion and $9.2 trillion will require refinancing throughout the year.

The recent bond market crash – allegedly triggered by foreign sell-offs – has driven yields higher, elevating the government’s cost of borrowing. As a result, the likelihood of near-term rate cuts has significantly diminished. This has also undermined the U.S dollar’s image as a safe haven.

Against this backdrop, the White House announced a 90-day tariff pause. And yet, the macro uncertainty is far from resolved. The U.S.-China trade conflict continues to escalate.

In the face of this economic turbulence, Bitcoin has defied broader market sell-offs. Following a week of heavy selling pressure that briefly dragged prices below $75k, BTC staged a strong reversal. At press time, It had rallied by nearly 11% to reclaim $83,500.

Big money steps in

CryptoQuant data revealed that whales have been pivotal in absorbing recent market pressure. Since March, wallets holding between 1k and 10k BTC have acquired a significant 100k BTC. 

Further analysis found that long-term holders (LTHs) now command 13.60 million BTC – Reflecting a 420k BTC hike in their holdings over the same period.

Right now, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for LTHs is 0.68. This indicated that on average, these holders may be sitting on 68% unrealized profits.

From a mathematical standpoint, given Bitcoin’s press time market price of $83,500, the implied average acquisition price for LTHs would be approximately $49,702.38. 

Notably, the NUPL has not yet entered the euphoria phase – An indicator often seen at market tops. For reference, during Bitcoin’s rally to $109k in January, the NUPL hit 0.76, marking a significant point of market exuberance.

However, the broader macroeconomic environment remains a key variable. Just like Ethereum saw massive capitulation from LTHs after the trade-driven pump, Bitcoin could face similar pressure. 

While the 90-day tariff pause provides some temporary relief, it will eventually end. This could reignite volatility. 

Additionally, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to weigh heavily on the market, with investors watching closely. Because of this, it’s still too early to call Bitcoin’s current resilience a sign of a parabolic run. Caution is still the best approach.