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美联储理事沃勒:如果出现显著的经济放缓
功夫茶虫
功夫茶虫
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链上智者
04-15 01:18
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美联储理事沃勒表示,新的关税政策是数十年来对美国经济影响最大的冲击之一。我认为由于关税导致的高通胀将是暂时的。如果目前25%的平均税率维持一段时间,通胀可能会在接近5%的水平达到峰值;在降至10%的情况下,通胀可能会达到3%的峰值。在高关税的情况下,对产出和就业的拖累可能会更为持久;失业率可能上升至5%。在大规模关税情景下,如果出现显著的经济放缓,我倾向于比之前想的更早和更大幅度地降息。在平均关税低于10%的情况下,经济活动将受到有限影响;我支持采取有限的货币政策回应。在较小关税的情景下,美联储可能会更加耐心,降息可能会在下半年进行。政策具有高度不确定性,美联储应保持灵活。部分关税暂缓可能扩大了潜在结果的范围,使得(降息)时机变得不那么确定。通胀预期并未失去稳定性,预计通胀将在2026年回落至更温和的水平。货币政策正在显著限制经济活动,潜在的通胀预计将继续温和下行。
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