On April 16, Coinbase Research released a research report saying that both the Bitcoin and COIN50 indexes have fallen below their respective 200-day moving averages, indicating that the market may be in the early stages of a long-term downward trend. This is consistent with the trend of declining total market capitalization and shrinking venture capital, both of which are important features of the possible arrival of the "cryptocurrency winter".

The report pointed out that many signs may indicate that extreme negative sentiment has emerged with the implementation of global tariffs and the possibility of further escalation, and a new "crypto winter" may be beginning.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter, but was still down 50-60% from the peak of the 2021-2022 cycle. This greatly limits new capital to enter the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All of these structural pressures stem from uncertainty in the broader macroeconomic environment, with traditional risky assets facing sustained resistance due to fiscal tightening and tariff policies, which have led to the paralysis of investment decisions. With the stock market underperforming, the path to recovery for cryptocurrencies remains challenging even with some unique favorable factors in the regulatory environment.

The interaction of these factors makes the cyclical outlook in the digital asset space difficult, and caution may still be needed in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also believes that investors need to adopt tactical market strategies and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.