On April 16, according to CoinDesk, although the possibility of the bottom already appearing is not ruled out, on-chain analyst James Check said that the real bottom may not appear before Bitcoin has experienced a real "surrender-style sell-off".

James Check said that this could mean Bitcoin needs to fall back to the approximately $65,000 region, which he calls the "real market average", or the average holding cost of active investors. Once it falls to this level, average investors may begin to feel the pressure of not realizing losses, and even long-term holders who have held the currency for up to five years may also face a "being trapped". Michael Saylor's Strategy's average Bitcoin holding cost is about $67,500.

While Check expects a significant decline in Bitcoin from the $65,000 region, he believes there is strong support between $49,000 and $50,000. This price range not only represents the start price of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, but also symbolizes the key mark of Bitcoin’s $1 trillion market value. He said that unless there is a global recession, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will fall to $40,000. Bitcoin has experienced a long "chopsolidation" phase in 2024 - the price of the currency has remained within a wide range of 50,000 to 70,000 US dollars for several months, which has established a solid support base for the market.