Summary of Powell's key points of his April 16 speech: 1. Interest rate outlook: high uncertainty; currently in a good position, wait for a clearer signal before considering adjusting the policy stance. 2. Economic prospects: The US economy remains "stable", with strong imports in the first quarter dragging down, and GDP may slow down compared to last year. 3. Inflation outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more sustained, and is expected to push up inflation; the annual PCE rate in March is expected to be 2.3% and the core PCE is 2.6%. 4. Employment market: Maintain balance overall; reduced investment in scientific research funds is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise. 5. Tariff impact: The amount of tariff imposition so far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact is still highly uncertain. 6. Cryptocurrency: gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins is needed; bank supervision is expected to experience "partial relaxation". 7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is granted by law; the Federal Reserve will not be affected by political pressure. 8. Others: Don’t expect the Fed to take action to save the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Fed is ready to provide liquidity to global central banks. 9. Market reaction: The US index rebounded after falling, and then fell again; US stocks continued to fall, the Nasdaq fell nearly 4%, and gold climbed slightly.
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