Under the influence of US President Trump's whirlwind tariff policy, the latest consumer confidence survey released by the University of Michigan shows thatU.S. consumers' inflation expectations for the coming year reach their highest level since 1981。

A new analysis by the Boston Fed found thatIt makes sense for Americans to expect tariff costs to be reflected in their shopping receipts。

The researchers' findings are based on a Morning Consul survey conducted at the end of December of more than 400 small and medium-sized enterprises that explore business expectations and plans for tariffs. The respondents expect thatAs the U.S. imposes higher tariffs on most trading partners, costs will rise and businesses plan to pass on these fees to consumers in the form of price increases.

The conclusions drawn by the analysis include: “The company plans to pass on expected, tariff-induced unit cost changes to customers through price increases; the degree of such cost transfer will vary in different tariff scenarios.”

The company said thatThe amount of price increases depends on the tariff scenario. Interestingly, they expectPrices rise most dramatically under low tariffs (10% tax rate) scenario。

Businesses have several options to offset additional costs, such as digesting costs themselves or negotiating with suppliers, but the most common strategy is to pass on costs to consumers.

The University of Michigan survey found thatConsumers expect inflation to be 6.7% a year later, up from 4.9% the previous month (March). Long-term inflation expectations for the next five to ten years also rose to 4.4% in April from 4.1% in March. A new survey by the New York Fed shows a similar but less extreme expectation.

After Trump abandoned the higher tax rate on his “Liberation Day” tariffs and announced exemptions to some technology products, Capito Macro calculated in a report last weekend,The overall effective tariff rate for U.S. imports are currently around 22%., down from 27% last week.

Despite the recent softening of the White House tariff stance, Trump's trade agenda has pushed tariff rates on U.S. imports to its highest level in more than a century, pushing up inflation expectations and lowering U.S. growth expectations.

According to a report by the Boston Fed,Importers expect the increase in costs caused by tariffs to take about two years to fully reflect in prices. One yet unclear variable is how tariffs imposed on U.S. imports will affect the prices charged by domestic companies, which will have further implications for inflation outlook.

Economists warn that consumers should expect inflation to accelerate again. “If commodity supply falls sharply in the short term, this could be manifested as higher consumer prices,” former Fed economist Claudia Sahm said in an interview last Thursday. “T-shirts could soon become the new ‘egg’ (referring to items with soaring prices).

Last Friday, Boston Fed Chairman Collins and New York Fed Chairman Williams said they believe inflation will rise above 3% this year due to Trump's tariffs.

Companies have also begun implementing price increases or preparing for price increases to inform customers, although they are working to mitigate price shocks through inventory management and working with suppliers. For example, German automaker Volkswagen recently increased its "import fees" to all vehicles affected by the 25% auto tariff. "We expect suppliers in all our categories to pass on some of the tariff costs to retailers, making U.S. consumers very likely to face price increases," said Corie Barry, CEO of Best Buy.