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OPEC+ is finally "really"? Eight member states pledge further production cuts
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04-17 11:30
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If the latest production cuts can be fully implemented, it will largely offset the production increase planned by OPEC+ other member states in May.
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OPEC said on Wednesday it had received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries that would further cut oil production to compensate for previously exceeding the agreement's quota.

OPEC+, including OPEC, Russia and other allies, has implemented a series of production cuts since the end of 2022. Its compensation plan is designed to ensure that further reductions are implemented by Member States that fail to fully meet their obligation to reduce production.

According to foreign media calculations,The latest plan requires seven countries to further cut production by 369,000 barrels per day between now (April 2025) and June 2026, while the previous plan lasted from March to June this year.

According to the latest plan, from this month (April) to June 2026,Total monthly production cuts will range between 196,000 barrels and 520,000 barrels per day, higher than the previous planned 189,000 barrels to 435,000 barrels per day.

If the latest cuts can be fully implemented, the compensation plan will largely offset the 411,000 barrels per day increase planned by OPEC+ other member states in May, providing additional support for the oil market.

According to the plan form, the seven member states that made the cuts are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman (Algeria is also included in the form, but there is no requirement for a reduction in production). The table shows that in May,Six of the countries will cut production by a total of 378,000 barrels per day

However,OPEC+ has revised the plan several times as some countries fail to make cuts as promised.As the organization's largest overproducer, Iraq plans to step up efforts to meet its compensatory cut commitments and its crude oil freight quotas to customers in May have been significantly lowered, a source familiar with the plan said. "We need to make more cuts to meet the requirements of the compensation plan," the source said.

According to the form, by June 2026, Iraq will need to compensate for overproduction totaling 1.93 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan needs to complete the second largest compensatory cut within the same period of time to make up for the total overproduction equivalent to 1.3 million barrels per day.

"(These factors) will certainly affect market sentiment, Iran's production will be subject to U.S. sanctions, and OPEC members have begun to comply with quotas, both of which fuel bullish sentiment in the market," said Michael McCarthy, CEO of online investment platform Moomoo.

He said that the U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks increased significantly, and the weekly crude oil inventory growth rate was smaller than expected, which also boosted the market. McCarthy said, "The recent selling pressure in the global crude oil market is largely related to concerns about the imminent influx of U.S. crude oil, but a decline in refining production suggests that supply bottlenecks may be emerging."

Still, OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and several banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, all lowered their expectations for oil prices and demand growth this week as U.S. tariffs and retaliation from other countries have chaotic global trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) stated thatGlobal trade in goods is expected to fall by 0.2% this year, down from its October forecast of 3.0%.

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