The Shipping Corporation has successively used the quotes at the end of April to mid-May to drag down the market's pessimistic expectations. The main contract of the European Concentration Line fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, and continued to lead the futures market during the day, falling to 1,501 points at the lowest level, exceeding 4%, the lowest level since February 7 this year.

In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk open wk19 reported a large cabinet of 1750, a decrease of US$50 compared to wk18. MSC online/offline quotation of US$2,110 will continue to be used until 5/14. HMM offline quotation of large cabinets is US$1,856 to 5/9. Haitong Futures pointed out that the shipping company's quotation in early May has been basically determined; referring to the end of April,wk18-19 average quotation is expected to be about US$2,000 for large containers。

According to the latest shipment statistics, the average weekly capacity in May was 28.0wTEU, a decrease of 3% month-on-month and an increase of 9% year-on-year. The air shifts were mainly concentrated in wk19-20, with an average weekly capacity of 24.8wTEU, and the average weekly capacity in wk21-22 weeks rebounded to 29.4wTEU. The average weekly capacity in June was 31.2wTEU, an increase of 12% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year. There are currently many ships to be determined, so pay attention to subsequent dynamic changes.

Regarding the future market, many institutions have a bearish view. Guangzhou Futures said that the SCFIS freight settlement index fell month-on-month at the beginning of the week, the US tariffs on China increased, and the market sentiment further weakened, and the futures price fluctuated with the game of funds, so be cautious. Guotou Futures believes that overall, the expectation of price support for the European line in early May fell short, and considering that the U.S. line has a wide range of suspensions, there is a possibility that idle ships will continue to be transferred to the European line.The 06 contract may further decline and gradually move towards spot prices, while the 08 contract continues to be upgraded due to the possibility of easing of subsequent US tariff policies. Shenyin Wanguo Futures said that the current US line cargo exports have plummeted, and some transportation capacity may be deployed on the European line again, aggravating the oversupply pattern of European line supply. In addition, the European line festival stocking season has not yet begun, and EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent control of capacity by the Shipping Department and the progress of the Shipping Department's increase in May.

Haitong Futures pointed out that the market needs to beFocus on two aspects: macro policies and spot freight rates. The policy anchors the tariff game between China and the United States and changes in their actual freight demand for the US line, and whether the US 301 investigation will lead to accelerated withdrawal of some capacity from the US line. The spot side focuses on the price bottom position at the end of April and early May, as well as the booking situation at this price level; in addition, after the booking of US lines has weakened, some capacity will be adjusted to the European line to fill the empty shifts, and pay attention to whether there will be more capacity migrations in the future.

Ruida Futures believes that the follow-up needs to be closely related.Pay attention to relevant US policies to Europe and China-Europe foreign trade data. The panic and risk aversion caused by the imposition of tariffs by China and the United States may dominate the market in the short term, resulting in an intensified volatility of the futures of the collective transportation index (European line), while the medium and long term depend on the resilience of the global economy and the export substitution effect. If the trade volume of China and Europe increases, or the United States imposes tariffs on Europe better than expected, the performance of far-month futures prices may be better than the recent contract.

In other varieties, Fed Chairman Powell's speech triggered violent fluctuations in the market. Powell clearly stated that "we need to wait for clearer data before considering adjustment policies and will not interfere with the stock market that has plummeted." The US stock market fell, andSpot goldPrices soared, breaking through the $3,300 mark in one fell swoop, setting a new record high!

The main contract of Shanghai gold rose at the opening, setting a record high of 796.66 yuan/gram and then fell back. It is now at 788.16 yuan/gram, with the increase narrowing to 2.05%.Founder's mid-term futures analysis points outAccording to historical data, starting from US$1,250 in 2019,The time and space of this round of birth have just passed half, and the bull market is far from over.. In the current macroeconomic environment, gold is a long-term allocation tool to resist systemic risks. Whether as a safe-haven asset or an important part of asset allocation, gold will continue to play its unique role in the coming years.

The trends of double-coke futures were differentiated. The main coke 05 contract rebounded slightly and then fluctuated. The main coke 09 contract fluctuated at a low level; the main coke coal 09 contract fell for the fifth consecutive trading day.Baocheng Futures said，Coking coalIn terms of the medium- and long-term loose pattern has not been reversed, the current situation of high output and high import continues, and it still takes time to improve the demand for real estate and infrastructure.Futures are not driven upwardly. In terms of coke, the short-term supply and demand pattern has improved, but medium- and long-term demand concerns remain. In addition, the recent domestic and foreign policy disturbances have been fierce, and the market's long-short game is fierce.Coke is expected to fluctuate widely in the near future。

The main contract of SC crude oil jumped high in the early trading, with an intraday increase of more than 2%, and is now at 482.8 yuan per barrel. Funeng Futures believes that the United States maintains its extreme pressure policy and imposes sanctions on Iran again, and the entity list includes a Shandong local refiner. In addition, OPEC+ said it would compensate for the previous 4.572 million barrels of excess production, and the tightening supply is expected to support the rise in oil prices. EIA crude oil inventories increased by 515,000 barrels, and expected to increase by 507,000 barrels, while Cushing's crude oil inventories decreased by 25.105 million barrels, a decrease of 654,000 barrels. International oil prices are driving upward.INE crude oil is expected to run stronger with the foreign market。

In terms of cuisine futures, the main contract of rapeseed meal fell for the third consecutive trading day, and the main contract of rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. Guohailiang period goods analysis pointed out thatRapeseed supply concerns may be loosened due to the direction of Sino-Australia trade relations. After four years of turmoil, Australian agriculture seems to be profiting from Sino-US frictions. There is a voice in the domestic pressing industryShortly after China purchased 40 ships of Brazilian soybeans, there may be 15 ships of Australian rapeseed purchases, with a discount of about 930,000 tons.. According to the normal level of rapeseed pressing of 360,000 tons per month in China, it can be used for two and a half months. Although the rapeseed plant has not improved yet, the expectation of domestic rapeseed meal supply being restricted in the early stage has begun to loosen, and the premium of the trade friction between China and Canada has been greatly expelled. If the problem of restricted rapeseed imports is alleviated, it is highly likely that the monthly difference at the arrival point of the port will be under pressure again. The downward space of unilateral prices depends on the absolute price of Australian rapeseed and the domestic rapeseed profit. After a rapid decline in spot profit of imported rapeseed, the domestically imported rapeseed gradually entered a low position, and the compression space it can provide is gradually limited. OverallHold a phased view on the recent decline in rapeseed meal, and pay attention to support around 2450。