The latest tariff adjustments of the Trump administration seem to temporarily stabilize U.S. financial markets, but Daniel von Ahlen, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, a global data think tank, issued a warning:Investors may be underestimating the pace of a recession. If its predictions come true, U.S. stocks may experience more severe fluctuations before the end of the year.

Von Allen extracts the latest economic data in Wednesday's reportFive major risk points: The federal government's layoffs plan will test the labor market's ability to withstand, and the recruitment rate has declined at this time; Trump's tariff measures push up commodity prices coincide with a slowdown in the growth of residents' income; reciprocal tariffs will affect US exporters; tightening immigration policies may lead to labor shrinkage; fiscal tightening required to continue the tax cut policy for the first term will reduce economic stimulus at inappropriate times.

"The effects of these factors combined are enough to push the US economy into a recession - especially in the context of cooling down in actual personal income growth, policy makers have limited room for fault tolerance," Von Allen stressed. The model it constructs shows that despite the Wall Street consensus growth expectations lowered, the market is still pricing strong economic growth.

Another risk point outside of economic data comes from corporate earnings expectations:Analysts' forecast for 8.9% earnings growth in 2025 remain optimistic, with historical data showing that earnings typically grow zero during recession. It is worth noting thatWeak stock markets could affect consumer sectors——Stock assets account for 32% of the wealth of American households from 18% a decade ago.

Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown pointed out:"From chip and pharmaceutical industry tariffs to 10% full import tariffs, trade is still under restriction. The elimination of peer tariffs is slower than market expectations."

Brown warned:“Market participants are experiencing false sense of security.We have not yet absorbed the risks of upward and downward inflation caused by tariffs. ”

Von Allen gave three solutions:Long defensive assets through public utility sector ETFs, and short cyclical sectors such as finance and other cyclical sectors; allocate long-term anti-inflation bonds (TIPS);Build a long position in the yen with Mexican peso financing——Although the recent strengthening against the US dollar,The yen is still undervalued as a safe haven currency。

Goldman Sachs economists team warned of the risk of recession when Trump announced tariffs on April 2, but revised their forecasts after some tariffs were suspended on April 9. Policy repeatedly intensified market volatility - US stocks fell again on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.3%, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 2% due to Nvidia's AI chip export restrictions.

Von Allen concluded:“When the labor market, trade policy and fiscal space are under pressure at the same time, any emergencies can become a key factor.”