Chapter 1: Global crypto market structure in the post-bull era

Since the first half of 2025, the crypto market has entered the "post-bull market" stage, and overall it has shown the characteristics of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin successfully hit a new high driven by the halving cycle, it immediately entered a pullback channel. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy did not turn to loose as expected and the intensification of Sino-US trade tensions have caused the crypto market to be shrouded in the shadow of macro uncertainty again.

The market during this period was not a bear market in the traditional sense, nor did it continue the large-scale rise in the bull market, but was in the transition zone after the cyclical high. Risk preference has declined and capital activity has weakened, but there has been no systemic liquidity crisis similar to that in 2022. There is still an institutional demand for increased allocation for core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Although on-chain activity has declined slightly, it has not deteriorated significantly. At the same time, some new narrative sectors such as AI chain, Restaking, meme currency ecosystem, continue to attract hot money to compete, presenting a situation of "strong themes in weak markets".

From a macro perspective, in the first half of 2025, the global economy showed a complex state of "de-inflation is not stable and growth is under pressure." The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance in a high interest rate environment, and the market has different opinions on whether it will initiate interest rate cuts this year, and the uncertainty of interest rate paths continues to suppress the upward space of risky assets. A new round of trade frictions between China and the United States around new energy, high-tech and digital infrastructure has become a new variable. Although crypto assets are not directly involved, geopolitical risks have increased market volatility and also pose additional interference to investor sentiment. However, it is worth noting that the degree of globalization and anti-interference capabilities of the crypto industry have been significantly enhanced compared with the past. Many legal regions such as Hong Kong, Japan, and the UAE have successively issued supportive policies in 2024 to promote the launch of crypto ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin supervision, and the acceleration of Web3 sandbox operations, providing a clearer path for compliance participation for traditional funds. This international support trend partially hedged the negative impact of tightening US regulation, and also made the overall market ecology appear to be a "local sluggish and global balance".

Overall, the "post-bull market" is not the end of the bull market, but the entry into a new stage - the market focuses more on value judgment, users focus more on practical scenarios, and funds become more long-term. In the short term, macro variables will still dominate market expectations, but in the medium and long term, the market is in a critical period of transition to the next round of technology-application resonance cycle. Only in the diversified evolution of the global pattern, finding sectors and targets for certain growth is the core logic of the "post-bull market era".

Chapter 2: The gradual decline of the shadow of the trade war and the impact of macroeconomics

In the first half of 2025, the trade frictions that have once again staged between China and the United States have become an important disturbing factor in the global market, especially in the context of the approaching US election and intensifying policy games, involving many sensitive areas such as new energy, AI chips, key rare earths, and digital technology export control. However, compared with the peak of the trade war from 2018 to 2020, this round of trade disputes is more "symbolic". The actual economic impact and long-term structural impact are relatively mild, showing the characteristics of a gradual "decline".

On the one hand, the intensity of the new round of tariffs in the United States is obviously limited by its own inflationary pressure and the interests of voters. Against the backdrop of high interest rates and high prices, a large-scale increase in Chinese commodity tariffs will further push up import prices and weaken the momentum of consumption recovery. Therefore, the Biden administration's use of tariff tools in the election year is more inclined to tactical "expressive" operations rather than comprehensive upgrades at the strategic level. China continues its rational and restrained attitude, oriented towards stabilizing exports and attracting foreign investment, and does not carry out large-scale reciprocal countermeasures, leaving the overall trade friction in a state of "limited confrontation".

From the macro data level, although the disturbances in Sino-US trade frictions have caused an increase in short-term risk aversion sentiment, they have not led to a reassessment of systemic risks in the global financial market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Index stabilized rapidly after the impact appeared, and the US dollar index and gold maintained strong fluctuations, indicating that market participants' widespread expectations for this round of trade disputes have been reflected in prices. The crypto market also recovered quickly after a brief decline, and the overall pressure resistance has been significantly enhanced compared with the past.

For the crypto market, the indirect impact of the trade war is mainly reflected in three levels:

First, risk appetite shrinks in the short term. Trade tensions will temporarily hit market confidence and trigger a stronger risk-haven assets (such as gold and US bonds), while high volatility assets such as cryptocurrencies are easily a "liquidity reservoir" that will be sold. Second, the deformation of cross-border capital flows. Trade and technology sanctions are often accompanied by financial review and strengthening of cross-border payment supervision, which has led some funds to start on-chain transfer through stablecoins, BTC and other means, stimulating the increase in on-chain transaction volume and promoting the increase in interest in crypto assets in some Asian markets. Third, the medium- and long-term de-dollarization trend has strengthened. Trade frictions have strengthened emerging market countries' doubts about the stability of the US dollar system, and more and more countries are exploring cross-border clearing paths for digital currencies and tokenized assets, which has indirectly enhanced the strategic position of public chains such as Ethereum in global financial infrastructure.

It is worth noting that since Q2 2025, as global inflation gradually declines and central banks in many Eurasian countries have begun to brew interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's turn toward expectations has gradually heated up, and trade negotiations have returned to rationality, the sensitivity of the crypto market to geopolitical frictions is declining. The net inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds has returned to stability, indicating that institutional investors have gradually regarded trade risks as "background fluctuations" rather than decisive variables.

Overall, although this round of trade war has caused emotional disturbances, its actual impact on the crypto market has been significantly weakened. The global macro environment is undergoing a transition from a "solidarity end" to a "moderate recovery", and the risk pricing logic of the crypto market is also transitioning from "geographical tension" to "interest rate turning point". At this stage, the importance of macro-influence cannot be ignored, but the real driving force of the market may be quietly returning to the internal cycle of technological innovation and on-chain ecological evolution.

Chapter 3: Potential drivers of market rebound in the second half of the year

After experiencing suppression by factors such as the global macro environment, trade frictions and crypto regulatory policies in the first half of 2025, the crypto market ushered in a series of rebound signals. The rebound potential of the market in the second half of the year mainly comes from the following key drivers, which work together to bring the possibility of recovery to the crypto market.

3.1. Changes in interest rate cycles and rebounds in risk appetite

In the first half of 2025, the global economy gradually got rid of the high inflation situation after the epidemic, and major central banks gradually adjusted their monetary policies, especially the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes. The market generally expects that the interest rate cut cycle is expected to begin in the second half of the year. This trend has a particularly profound impact on the crypto market. First, low interest rate environments can usually reduce the return on traditional financial assets and further promote the flow of funds to high-risk and high-return asset classes. Secondly, the interest rate cuts have allowed institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to re-enhance the allocation of crypto assets while seeking higher returns, thereby driving the prices of major crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise.

In addition, as the U.S. government and other global economies strive to stimulate economic vitality through monetary easing policies, crypto markets as an "alternative investment asset" may become part of the capital market. This will attract more institutional funds and retail investors to participate.

3.2. Continuous innovation and expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi)

Although decentralized finance (DeFi) has experienced relatively complex market adjustments in the past two years, with the continuous maturity of technology and the expansion of application scenarios, the DeFi ecosystem is expected to usher in a new explosion point in the second half of 2025. With the continuous advancement of Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability and privacy protection technologies, DeFi has achieved significant improvements in scalability, cost-effectiveness and security, attracting more institutional participants.

Especially in the fields of decentralized lending, derivatives trading and synthetic assets, the DeFi market has gradually begun to penetrate into the "gray zone" of traditional financial markets. For example, with the innovation of the DeFi protocol, institutional funds can be hedged through on-chain derivatives, and investors can also participate in the market in a more flexible and low-cost way. This development potential will help promote a structural rebound in the crypto market in the second half of the year.

3.3. Continuous entry of institutional investors

In the maturity of the crypto market, the entry of institutional investors is undoubtedly one of the most critical factors. From Bitcoin ETFs to ETH futures, to more and more institutional funds gradually increasing their holdings of crypto assets, institutional inflows have brought more funds and a stable risk management mechanism to the market. With the further clarification of the regulatory framework and the gradual opening of the capital market, more and more traditional financial institutions will participate in the investment and custody of crypto assets.

In addition, some large enterprises (such as payment giants, Internet platforms, investment banks, etc.) have gradually realized the strategic significance of crypto assets in diversified asset allocation. This not only means that the fund pool of the crypto market is continuing to expand, but also indicates that the crypto market is gradually moving towards the mainstreaming of the traditional financial market. In the second half of the year, as more institutions recognize and invest in crypto assets, the momentum of the market rebound will be further enhanced.

3.4. Breakthrough and maturity in the application of blockchain technology

The long-term development of the crypto market depends not only on price fluctuations, but also on the practical application of blockchain technology. In 2025, blockchain has made significant progress in the application of finance, supply chain, medical care, copyright management and other fields. Especially in the application of cross-border payments, smart contracts and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain technology is constantly breaking down barriers to traditional industries and promoting the scale and maturation of the crypto asset market.

The success of these technologies, especially in the field of financial technology and business, will further promote the market demand for crypto assets. In the second half of 2025, as blockchain technology continues to make breakthroughs, its role in the actual economy will be more prominent, helping the recovery and rebound of the crypto market.

Through the superposition of the above factors, the crypto market in the second half of 2025 has strong rebound potential driven by multiple positive factors. The market recovery may be more significant, especially with the support of institutional investors, technological advances and the shift to monetary easing from the global economy, the crypto market is expected to usher in broader development space.

Chapter 4: The trend of differentiation between major chains and assets

4.1 Redefinition of the "health-hazard attributes" of Bitcoin and Ethereum

In this round of macro turmoil, Bitcoin is once again defined by the market as "digital gold" and anti-inflation assets. Especially in the context of widening monetary policy differences between central banks around the world and frequent geopolitical conflicts, BTC has shown relative resistance to declines.

Ethereum has gradually become synonymous with the "digital financial platform". Against the backdrop of enhanced L2 scalability, mature Restaking (restaking) mechanism, and explosion of DA (data availability) layer, the Ethereum ecosystem has gradually shifted from "Gas fee income" to "on-chain economic operation infrastructure". In the future, Bitcoin will have more global reserve assets attributes, while Ethereum may carry more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovation.

4.2 Solana and "High Performance Chain" Meme Experiment

Solana Chain experienced a period of Meme craze and on-chain innovation from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. High TPS, high user participation, and low Gas fees make it a popular public chain for Meme speculation and emerging DApp deployment. However, with the adjustment of the market, on-chain funds and projects gradually differentiate, and the "substantial ecology" Solana projects (such as Jupiter and Tensor) have begun to widen the gap with the simple Meme coins, and Solana has entered a new stage of in-depth ecological construction. Similar public chains such as Base, Sui, and Aptos are all facing the test of ecological precipitation of "after the peak period of hype".

4.3 Layer2 and cross-chain technology: Multi-chain collaboration becomes a trend

The Ethereum Layer2 solution represented by Arbitrum and Optimism has significantly improved transaction efficiency and reduced costs, and the on-chain interactive experience is close to the "centralized app". As ZK Rollup further matures technology (such as zkSync and Starknet), the synergistic effect of multi-chain coexistence + cross-chain liquidity protocols (such as LayerZero, Wormhole) will continue to increase. In the future, users will no longer focus on "what chain is on", but on "whether it is easy to use, safe and sufficient liquidity". This brings huge room for development for cross-chain assets, unified wallets, and aggregate liquidity agreements.

Overall, the differentiation between assets and chains in the crypto market will be more obvious in the second half of 2025. With the advancement of technology and changes in market demand, multiple public chains will compete to occupy market share, and the application scenarios of various digital assets will become increasingly rich. The differentiation trend of the crypto market not only promotes the diversified development of different asset classes, but also accelerates the maturity and improvement of the overall market structure.

Chapter 5: Outlook and Strategic Suggestions - Can a new round of market trends be ushered in in the second half of the year?

As 2025 gradually unfolds, after experiencing previous turmoil and adjustments, market participants' expectations for the future gradually shift in a positive direction. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, whether the crypto market can usher in a new round of market rebound depends not only on changes in the macro economy, but also closely related to the progress of blockchain technology, market capital liquidity and adjustments to the policy environment. Against this background, we propose the following strategic suggestions to help market participants seize future investment opportunities.

5.1. Main drivers: macroeconomics, technological progress and capital flows

To determine whether the crypto market can usher in a new round of market rebound, we must first clarify several key driving factors:

Macroeconomic recovery: As the global economy gradually recovers from the post-pandemic recession, countries' monetary and fiscal policies may also undergo loose changes. Especially in the United States and Europe, loose monetary policies may cause more money to flow into crypto markets. In addition, with the uncertainty of global financial markets and the volatility of traditional assets increasing, more and more investors are focusing on crypto assets as a safe-haven option.

Technological innovation and network upgrade: Continuous innovation of blockchain technology, especially the technology upgrade of public chains such as Ethereum 2.0, Solana and Polkadot, will bring higher transaction efficiency and lower costs to the market, which will enhance the attractiveness of crypto assets. At the same time, the maturity of Layer 2 technology, the strengthening of cross-chain protocols, and the continuous development of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) may all become important technical forces to drive market rebound.

Capital liquidity and institutional participation: As institutional investors gradually enter the crypto market, the market's capital liquidity will also be improved. The participation of institutional funds can not only provide deeper market liquidity, but also improve market stability and maturity. Especially after the launch of financial derivatives such as ETFs and futures, more and more traditional investors have begun to participate, which has injected new vitality into the crypto market.

5.2. Key factors for rebound in the second half of the year

Although the prospects of the crypto market are promising, whether a new round of market rebound in the second half of the year still depends on the superposition of several key factors:

The clarity of the policy: At present, there is still uncertainty in the regulatory policies on the crypto market around the world. While some countries have begun to provide clear regulatory frameworks for crypto markets, others are still on the stand-by. The further clarification of regulatory policies, especially policy orientations in innovative fields such as stablecoins, DeFi and NFT, will have a profound impact on the market. If major economies such as the United States, Europe, Asia and other regions introduce more friendly policies and provide positive guidance on crypto assets, market sentiment and capital inflows will be significantly improved.

Improvement of market sentiment: In the second half of 2025, the recovery of crypto market sentiment will be an important prerequisite for market rebound. Compared with 2024, market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimism to neutrality, and investors' recognition of crypto assets has gradually increased. With the improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the addition of more investors, market sentiment is expected to improve further, which will trigger capital inflows. This process may be gradually realized with the support of technological innovation and policies, ultimately driving market prices to rise.

The promotion of large capital: The intervention of large capital, especially the participation of institutional investors, will be another key factor in the rebound of crypto markets. In the second half of 2025, with the participation of more financial institutions and large capital, the liquidity and liquidity of the market will increase significantly. Especially with the booming development of derivatives markets such as ETFs and futures, market volatility may decrease, and capital inflows and market stability will be further enhanced.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) maturity: Decentralized Finance (DeFi), as an important part of the crypto market, may usher in further development in the second half of 2025. The improvement of the security, liquidity and user experience of the DeFi protocol will attract more investors and developers to participate. The expansion of the DeFi platform and decentralized financial services will bring new impetus to the entire crypto market, especially in the areas of cross-chain transactions and innovation in DeFi derivatives.

5.3. Strategic Suggestions

Faced with the possible rebound of the crypto market in the second half of 2025, investors should formulate corresponding investment strategies based on the market's potential and risks. Here are a few feasible strategy suggestions:

Adhere to long-term investment in mainstream assets: Despite the large number of emerging chains and assets in the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the "main force" of the crypto market. Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset will not be easily shaken. Ethereum continues to dominate the development of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum is still a solid strategy, especially when market sentiment improves, the return potential of mainstream assets remains considerable.

Focus on innovation chains and emerging assets: For investors with higher risk appetite, they can consider investing in public chains and assets with technological innovation and high growth potential. For example, chains such as Solana, Avalanche, Polkadot are attracting more and more developers and investors' attention. These chains provide different technical solutions from Ethereum, with higher transaction efficiency and lower transaction costs, so their market performance may exceed expectations, especially in applications such as DeFi and NFT.

Strengthen the allocation of stablecoins and DeFi assets: Stablecoins and DeFi assets, as important components of the crypto market, also provide investors with new investment opportunities. The application scenarios of stablecoins will be further expanded and become an important medium for cross-chain transactions and decentralized finance. DeFi protocols and assets may become new market growth points, and investors can consider allocating some high-quality DeFi tokens to share the growth dividends of the DeFi ecosystem.

Pay attention to policy dynamics and regulatory risks: Investors should always pay attention to policy changes in the global crypto market, especially regulatory policies for stablecoins, DeFi and NFTs. Policy support and constraints will directly affect the market's capital inflow and development direction. Actively paying attention to regulatory progress and quickly adjusting investment strategies after clear policies will help avoid policy risks and seize potential investment opportunities.

To sum up, the crypto market has a rebound potential in the second half of 2025, but whether it can usher in a new round of market conditions depends on the interweaving influence of multiple factors. From macroeconomic recovery, technological progress, capital liquidity to policy clarity, all factors are providing impetus for the recovery of the crypto market. Against this background, investors should flexibly adjust their strategies and continue to pay attention to market changes and potential opportunities.