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The ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time this year, and the term "restrictive" has been removed!
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04-17 21:30
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The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and the resolution statement deleted the term "restrictive" and traders expected to cut interest rates by another 55 basis points this year. Lagarde is unlikely to have a "big mouth"...
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Thursday's US trading,The ECB cuts deposit mechanism interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, in line with market expectations, cut interest rates for the sixth consecutive meeting, is the seventh rate cut since eight meetings, reducing borrowing costs to the lowest level since early 2023. The main refinancing rate and marginal loan rate will be lowered from 2.65% and 2.9% to 2.4% and 2.65% respectively.

ECB in resolution statementThe term "restrictive" was removed. Traders kept their ECB's expectations of a rate cut remain unchanged and are expected to cut another 55 basis points this year.

The ECB stated that the Management Committee did not make specific commitments on the future interest rate trend. The service industry's inflation rate has declined significantly in the recent period, resolutely ensuring that the inflation rate is stable and sustainable at the 2% medium-term target.

After the ECB issued a statement,Euro vs. USDThe short-term decline expanded to 30 points.The yields of government bonds in Europe remained basically the same, with the yields of Germany's 10-year government bonds rising 3 basis points to 2.53%.

The European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates was unanimously adopted. Even some of the more hawkish interest rate makers believe that the global trade war has significantly changed the economic outlook.Sources said some European Central Bank policymakers have made reasons for suspending interest rate cuts in April in the past, but they gave up those reasons after unstable U.S. trade measures triggered volatility in global financial markets.

The ECB hopes to boost the already troubled euro zone economy, which will be hit hard by U.S. tariffs. As price pressure fades after the epidemic, the ECB has been reducing borrowing costs.The recent global market-related turmoil has also added reasons for further easing of policy.U.S. tariffs are expected to weaken the already weak economic growth of the EU, with EU automobiles, luxury goods and high-end food and beverage companies relying on exports to the U.S.

The ECB said: "Increased uncertainty may reduce confidence in households and businesses, the adverse and volatile market response to trade tensions could have a tightening impact on the financing environment. These factors may further drag the economic outlook of the eurozone. ”

Just a few weeks ago, the ECB was considering suspending its easing policy, but this month Trump announced a full tariff on U.S. trading partners, making internal support re-invigorated to further rate cuts.

The prospect of another rate hike is more attractive to policymakers as inflation continues to fall back to the ECB’s 2% target, and a downturn in energy costs and a plunge in confidence indicators have also boosted the trend. Meanwhile, the unexpected move of the euro has pushed the euro against the dollar to a three-year high.

Here are the key points of Lagarde's statement at the post-policy press conference:

1. Tariff impact effect

"We confirm that this is a negative demand shock. Its impact on economic growth can be foreseen, but the net impact on inflation will need to be clearly visible over time."

2. The decision to cut interest rates unanimously

"I confirmed that the decision to cut interest rates was unanimous. Other options were discussed at the meeting, but no one supported a larger drop of 50 basis points, for example, 25 basis points is a consensus on the whole game."

3. Risk of breaking the trade chain

"The continued obstacles to global trade are exacerbating uncertainty about the inflation outlook in the euro zone. The decline in energy prices and the appreciation of the euro may further suppress inflation, while the decline in export demand and the re-export influx of countries with excess capacity caused by high tariffs will strengthen this trend."

4. Global trade tensions escalate

"The downward risk of economic growth is intensifying. Major escalation of global trade conflict and related uncertainties will drag down the growth of the euro zone by curbing exports and may lead to a double decline in investment and consumption. Deterioration of sentiment in the financial market may trigger tightening of financing conditions, enhance risk aversion awareness, and curb the willingness of enterprises and households to spend."

5. Unexpected boost in defense spending

“The increase in defense and infrastructure spending will have a driving effect on economic growth.”

6. Fiscal policy urgency

"In the current political environment, fiscal and structural policies urgently need to improve the productivity, competitiveness and resilience of the euro zone economy."

7. Uncertainty is shrouded in

“The economic outlook is being shrouded in unusual uncertainty.”

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