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分析师:预计关税战远未结束,市场不确定性将长期持续
果然坚持就是胜利
果然坚持就是胜利
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资深研究
1d ago
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4 月 18 日,Greeks.live 分析师 Adam 表示,本周行情温和了很多,特朗普本周放出的消息没有那么多,市场迅速冷却。目前短期 RV 仅有 30%,IV 也在本周大幅下降,跌破 40%。中长期 RV 在 50% 至 60%,IV 集中在 50% 附近。Greeks.live 预期贸易战和关税战远没有到结束的时候,市场的不确定性还将长期持续,市场的波动也将长期持续。


交割量占到总持仓的不到 1 成,PCR 近期一直维持在较高水平,体现了市场对下跌的担忧明显压过了对上涨的期待。4 月与 6 月期权持仓量都维持在 25% 附近,市场结构相对稳固,横盘可能性很大。但现在是牛彻底转熊的阵痛期,投资者情绪较为低迷,在这种牛转熊的较差行情下,黑天鹅发生的概率会显著提升,买一些深度虚值看跌会是不错的选择。

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