Focusing on the stock market has been a "painful" experience recently as investors struggle to cope with the Trump administration's ever-changing tariff plans and their impact on the economy.

Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out thatTrump's policies have made conventional economic data "very noisy" and are complicating investors' outlook for the market。

Gapen display,To have a more reliable understanding of the health of the economy, investors should pay attention to the monthly non-farm employment report.

He added that the key indicators to be paid attention to areIs the rate of new jobs in the U.S. labor market enough to keep wage growth higher than inflation.

"If we don't have enough jobs, the economy will slow down. I think as long as we add 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs a month, there's enough buffering and we'll be fine."Once you start to fall below 100,000, you have to question its sustainability。”

So far, the employment report shows that the labor market seems to be performing strongly in amid high policy uncertainty. In March, the U.S. economy continued to increase jobs at a strong pace, adding 228,000 new jobs, although the unemployment rate also rose slightly to 4.2%.

And on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell provided some additional assurances on the health of the U.S. labor market.

"Wage growth continues to slow, but overall still outperforms inflation. The labor market appears to be in a solid state, generally balanced, and not a significant source of inflationary pressure," Powell said at the Chicago Economic Club.

Investors will get the latest information on the U.S. labor market on May 2, when the non-farm employment report for April will be released.

Gapen also pointed out that for the current prospects of the U.S. economy,Immigration issues are as important as tariffs.

In March this year, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 7,181 people across the southwest border, the lowest level on record in the United States. In the same period last year, the number of transits on the southwestern border of the United States was 137,473.

Fighting illegal immigration has been an early priority for the Trump administration, which has been pushing for strategies such as “massive deportation” and strengthening scrutiny of green card and visa holders. Gapen asserts,The sharp decline in immigration numbers is likely to affect the growth of the U.S. workforce.

Gapen: “Even slower employment growth may be accompanied by low unemployment rates and tight labor markets. "He pointed out that this could lead to a stagflation scenario in the economy, where inflation rises and growth slows down.

Although some of Trump's policies, such as deregulation and tax cuts, may eventually boost growth, Gapen warned, "Tariffs and immigration (policy) will drag down the economy this year。”

Despite the slowdown, Gapen saidHis company did not predict a recession. His outlook for the economy isWill grow, but the speed will slow down”。

Gapen believes that in this environment,Decentralized assets are the key. He suggested balancing the portfolio with cash, short-term Treasury bonds and other defensive investments that could perform well in a downturn.

"We are known to hear announcements about tariffs so they attract attention ... We are in a period of high uncertainty, so the economy may face more potential paths than we have in the past," he said.

He continued: “Diverful investment is your friend when the economy can go so many different paths.”