In April 2025, the price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate in the range of $83,000 to $85,200, failing to break through the key resistance level of $86,000. This price fluctuation is closely related to the subtle changes in macroeconomic data. Although the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will not intervene in the market or implement interest rate cuts, the European Central Bank has taken the lead in lowering interest rates from 2.50% to 2.25%, a new low since the end of 2022, in an attempt to ease the impact of tariff policies on the economy. This divergence in global monetary policies has further exacerbated market uncertainty, prompting investors to re-evaluate the safe-haven properties of assets such as Bitcoin

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. XBIT decentralized exchange platform traders pointed out that BTC prices continued to shrink within the triangle pattern, and the RSI indicator was above 50 and tried to break through the resistance level, suggesting that a directional breakthrough is coming. Order flow analysts believe that if Bitcoin fails to break through $85,000 as soon as possible, the long-term chart may turn bearish. The battle for this price range is not only about short-term trends, but also likely to determine whether Bitcoin can continue the bull market pattern since 2024.On April 17, the price of gold soared to a record high of $3,357 per ounce, which has attracted widespread attention from the market to the subsequent trend of Bitcoin. XBIT decentralized exchange historical data shows that there is a significant lagging correlation between gold and Bitcoin: whenever gold hits a new high, Bitcoin usually follows up and breaks through the previous high within 100-150 days. This correlation stems from the complementary roles of the two in times of economic uncertainty. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold usually takes the lead in reflecting inflation expectations and monetary easing signals; while Bitcoin, due to its rigid supply and decentralized characteristics, has become a latecomer under the digital gold narrative.

XBIT Growth Director pointed out that Bitcoin's lag in gold trends is related to its market maturity-institutional investors need longer to complete the configuration conversion from traditional assets to crypto assets. He believes that the simultaneous strength of Bitcoin and gold reflects investors' concerns about the weakening of the US dollar and the $35 trillion national debt, while tariff policies have exacerbated the turbulence of the global economic order.Despite short-term volatility, analysts at the XBIT decentralized exchange platform remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Based on the power-law curve time contour model, Bitcoin is predicted to enter a parabolic growth phase in the second half of 2025, with a target price of up to $400,000. The model normalizes the market value of Bitcoin with the market value of gold and measures the value of Bitcoin in units of gold ounces, revealing its potential valuation logic as digital gold.The law of historical cycles also supports this prediction. Bitcoin's halving effect (once every four years) usually triggers a bull market within the next 12-18 months, and the halving event in April 2024 may show its power in the third to fourth quarters of 2025. At the same time, most investors choose to continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin through the XBIT decentralized exchange platform, whose smart contracts can be flexibly upgraded to support complex financial products such as leveraged trading and derivatives. And the automated market maker (AMM) model reduces the possibility of human price manipulation. It realizes user asset sovereignty, transaction transparency and anti-censorship, which is especially suitable for groups that value privacy, technology trust and global participation.

In this change, the complementarity between gold and Bitcoin has become more and more significant. With its historical consensus and liquidity advantages, gold is still the ultimate safe-haven choice in crises; while Bitcoin has verified its digital gold 2.0 attributes through de-correlation and has become the core target of diversified investment portfolios. For ordinary investors, allocating a combination of physical gold and mainstream cryptocurrencies and paying attention to the miskilling opportunities of emerging market bonds may be the best strategy to resist turbulence.