TL;DR

• Although bitcoin’s price tumbled by over 20% since its January all-time high and is currently nowhere near it, a crucial metric shows that the actual cycle peak is not here yet.
• In terms of entry prices, though, one analyst cautioned that the current levels might not be optimal.

No Peak Yet?

After hitting an all-time high on January 20 this year at over $109,000, bitcoin’s price started to lose value gradually until the end of the month and then nosedived following the global economic uncertainty prompted by US President Trump’s controversial approach.

The culmination came last week when BTC tumbled below $75,000 for the first time in five months. This meant that the asset had lost nearly $35,000 in less than three months.

This split the community into those who believe the bull market has come to a screeching halt and those who rely on history to be more optimistic, suggesting that such substantial corrections have occurred during all previous cycles. But there are only that—corrections, and BTC will persevere.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst with over 135,000 followers on X, brought another key metric that could support the latter. It still relies on historical performance, but it’s not focused on the technical aspects. Instead, it measures the retail activity as BTC tends to peak after a massive influx of such investors.

So far, there hasn’t been a big retail wave. This is evident from the lack of Google searches as well as the missing “retail activity through trading frequency surge.”

#Bitcoin $BTC market tops have historically aligned with surges in retail activity. The move from $70,000 to $110,000 lacked that, echoing the late 2021 setup. pic.twitter.com/rVJPUTpXZC

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 18, 2025

Martinez noted that the current cycle resembles the 2021 run when BTC peaked in April, only to break that high at the end of the year.

Don’t Rush to Buy

Although history suggests there might be more gains on the horizon for BTC, Martinez published another chart that suggests investors should maybe be more patient before allocating funds to the largest digital asset.

This is because of the Bitcoin Exchange inflow volume, a metric used to “spot strong entry points.”

#Bitcoin $BTC exchange inflow volume momentum is a key metric for spotting strong entry points. For now, it’s signaling patience. We’re still waiting for the right opportunity to step in. pic.twitter.com/NSS1fZcHMl

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 19, 2025

This essentially confirms a previous report by Glassnode, which read that the BTC market is now in a “wait-and-see” phase.