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宏观必看图表:“当前白银的估值具有极高吸引力”(2025/4/24)
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04-25 06:32
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金银比是否已经见顶?历史上,该比值的顶部几乎总是与白银价格的阶段性低点重合。
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黄金趋势

分析师:鉴于当前重大地缘政治风险持续发酵,黄金预计将继续守住上升通道上轨的支撑区域。从长期来看,黄金大概率将显著上涨,趋势未变。

白银中期预期

分析师:没有什么比“假跌破”更具看涨的信号了。白银正在尝试确认其趋势修复,一旦站稳并完成结构确认,未来几个月有望加速上冲至35美元以上。

白银中期预期ii

分析师:白银几乎已经反弹回到此前断崖式下跌前的关键破位点。接下来市场在这一位置的反应将非常值得关注。截至目前,这波反弹走势极为强劲 ——仅用12个交易日就反弹了将近20%。

金银比

分析师:你要么站在“这一次不一样”的阵营里、要么选择相信历史的规律,我毫无疑问属于后者。我从未见过金银比长期维持在100以上,也并不认为在转向之前还有多少上行空间值得去押注。对我而言,这可能是我遇到过的最具吸引力的机会之一。(绿色是衡量“白银历史性低估”的水平线)

金银比

分析师:黄金/白银比值是否已经见顶?历史上,该比值的顶部几乎总是与白银价格的阶段性低点重合。目前该比值的3日变动率(ROC)已飙升至10%,而在2008年和2020年,这一指标曾分别达到12%和20%的极端水平。

无论这是否是最终顶部,当前白银的估值都具有极高吸引力,尤其考虑到它们很可能在下一轮行情中实现显著跑赢黄金。从历史经验来看,白银通常会在黄金完成重大突破后的首次回调结束后,开始真正的强势表现

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