The Fed may not be in a hurry to rescue the market. Pay attention to whether BTC 74500 can hold on? 🙏
The editor looked at the market in the morning and fainted, and now he just woke up.
What everyone expects most now is that the Federal Reserve or Trump will drag the bottom. But this may not come as fast.
Some people believe that Trump is currently interested in artificially creating stock market chaos, cracking down on the Democratic Party’s old money forces, and creating more space for his subsequent operations.
Bloomberg chief American economist Anna Wong believes that the Fed will not take action so quickly this time. There are several reasons:
Market expectations are too optimistic: Everyone thought the Fed would cut interest rates five times, but the Fed is actually still waiting and watching, thinking it is too early to take action.
Worrying about repeating 2022: If inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve is afraid of being scolded and inaction, so it would rather let the market fall first than rush to save.
Wall Street inflation forecast is relatively high: many major banks predict that PCE will rise to 4-5%, and the Federal Reserve is even more afraid to act rashly when seeing these.
Data lag: Employment decline will not appear until the third and fourth quarters, but the data on inflation rebound will come out faster, and the Federal Reserve will have to wait until the "hard data" is confirmed before reassuring.
Powell wants to leave his name: he hopes to be considered like Volker, the "inflation terminator" of that year, and does not want to turn dovey easily.
Historical reference: Now it is more like the 1970s and 1980s. At that time, the Federal Reserve waited until the economy was poor and inflation was under pressure before cutting interest rates.
What do you think the market will go next? The editor recommends watching more and moving less, and it is not too late to wait until the K-line is finished and then taking action.