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QCP:短期内预计所有风险资产将继续承压,市场情绪依旧低迷
深圳小美女sol
深圳小美女sol
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web3美女
04-02 17:53
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4 月 2 日,QCP 发布每日市场观察称,「特朗普即将在玫瑰园发布一系列关税措施。短期内,我们预计所有风险资产将继续承压。但随着新现状逐渐稳定下来,我们可能会看到一些「非美国例外主义」的现象。即便美国因政策选择可能被边缘化,全球股指仍可能继续上涨,创下新高。


市场预计 2025 年美联储将降息 2.5 次。美联储正面临困境,消费者信心和软数据表现疲软,可能预示着第二季度美国 GDP 增长放缓。同时,关税引发的通胀压力可能从 4 月 2 日开始逐渐加剧。在经典的滞涨环境下,美联储更可能加息而非降息。在当前情况下,美联储似乎倾向于采取观望态度。


加密货币方面,市场情绪依然低迷。比特币继续无明显方向地波动,而以太坊保持在 1800 美元的支撑位。整体来看,加密市场表现出疲软的迹象,许多加密货币年初至今已下跌 90%,部分币种在过去一周更是下跌超过 30%。除非宏观经济形势发生重大变化或出现有力的催化剂,否则我们不预计市场会有实质性的反转。虽然轻仓可能支持小幅上涨,但在宏观环境改善之前,我们不会追逐任何上涨行情。」

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