On April 2, QCP released a daily market observation saying, "Trump is about to issue a series of tariff measures in the Rose Garden. In the short term, we expect all risky assets to continue to be under pressure. But as the new status quo gradually stabilizes, we may see some "non-American exceptionalism". Even if the United States may be marginalized due to policy choices, global stock indexes may continue to rise, setting new highs.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 2.5 times in 2025. The Fed is facing difficulties, with weak consumer confidence and soft data performance, which may herald a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures caused by tariffs may gradually intensify from April 2. In a classic stagflation environment, the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates than cut rates. In the current situation, the Fed seems to be inclined to take a wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of cryptocurrency, market sentiment remains sluggish. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in no obvious direction, while Ethereum remains at the $1,800 support level. Overall, the crypto market shows signs of weakness, with many cryptocurrencies falling 90% year-on-year, and some currencies have fallen by more than 30% in the past week. Unless there is a significant change in the macroeconomic situation or a strong catalyst appears, we do not expect a substantial reversal in the market. Although light positions may support a slight increase, we will not chase any upward trend until the macro environment improves. "