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宏观必看图表:黄金爆发式走高,多空观望气氛浓厚(2025/4/16)
货币探险家
货币探险家
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资深研究
04-17 05:01
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黄金周三冲高至3300上方,分析师提醒在这样的趋势之下,试图去精准摸顶操作往往代价高昂。
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1. 抢跑机会?

分析师:金融状况指标虽然有所回落,但还是偏向紧缩。对我来说只有这个指标掉到零以下、进入宽松区间,才可以比较安心地进场做多。当然,如果是操作风格比较激进的交易者,昨天其实已经出现了一个入场信号——指标跌破了自己的10日均线,算是一个“超前卡位”的机会。

2. 白银

分析师:下图显示的是白银期货中“管理基金”(Managed Money,MM)多头持仓(红色)与银价(蓝色)的关系。4月初的那波回调,伴随着MM多头的大幅砍仓,使得持仓量重新回到了“绿色区域”——这个区间在过去往往是价格止跌企稳甚至开始反弹的区域。

3. 反弹?

摩根大通:我们的短线股市情绪指标在触及第99百分位后已开始回落,显示市场情绪可能正在转向。上一次出现类似的快速逆转,还是在2022年的一波熊市反弹期间。因此,当前是考虑建立对冲头寸的时候了。

4. 金价的空间

若将金价按货币供应量调整后计算,目前仍比1980年峰值水平低了约75%。

5. 金价的狂飙

分析师:如下图所示,黄金现在已经进入了典型的行情“喷出阶段”(blow-off stage)。这种快速拉升最终必然会形成一个顶部,但试图去精准摸顶,往往代价高昂。而且喷出式顶部的走势,常常会远远超出空头账户保证金所能承受的范围。

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