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Binance研究院:美国国债发行规模为关键宏观指标,加密货币将受深刻影响
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加密之眼
04-18 21:15
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4 月 18 日,Binance 研究院发布「2025 年美国国债供应创纪录——对宏观经济和加密货币的影响」报告,其中指出:「美国财政部计划在 2025 年发行高达 31 万亿美元的债务,规模达预计 GDP 的 109% 和 M2 货币供应量的 144%,创历史新高。外国持有者拥有约三分之一的美国债务,需求下降可能推高融资成本。即使需求保持稳定,发行规模的巨大本身就是一项结构性挑战。近期风险资产市场获得喘息,可能与贸易谈判的乐观情绪有关,但对缓解整个 2025 年利率市场所面临的持续压力作用甚微。」


「来自国债供应的持续加息压力可能对风险资产(包括加密货币)造成影响。然而如果政府最终转向债务货币化——即通过印钞来弥补赤字——这可能会加强比特币和其他硬资产作为货币贬值的对冲工具的论点。这种宏观经济动态值得密切关注。2025 年美国国债发行规模的空前扩大是关键宏观指标之一,其连锁反应可能从无风险利率延伸至市场流动性,如果收益率飙升,可能迫使白宫和美联储采取政策反应。」

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