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惠誉首席经济学家:特朗普确实在改变美国经济,但方向错了!
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数据显示,美国平均关税已从去年的2.2%飙升至23%,消费者将承担大部分关税成本,经济增长预期已从2%下调至1.2%,滞胀风险正急剧上升。
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惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿(Brian Coulton)警告称,特朗普的关税政策将产生反效果,导致利率和通胀持续高企,甚至可能引发滞胀。4月17日,这位常驻伦敦的经济学家深入探讨了他对美国经济的五大关键判断。

“关税会持续存在吗?”

库尔顿指出,特朗普4月2日宣布的“解放日”对等关税“比预期糟糕得多”。他认为当前美国平均关税已达23%,是去年2.2%的十倍多。尽管特朗普声称正努力达成有利协议,但库尔顿认为“关税不是谈判策略,特朗普真心认为贸易逆差是坏事”。

“谁为关税买单?”

库尔顿分析2018-2019年税数据发现,美国进口商承担了约三分之一的成本,消费者则支付了大部分关税。“这次很可能重蹈覆辙,”他说。

“关税会拖累经济增长吗?”

库尔顿将2025年美国GDP增长预期从2%下调至1.2%。“想象一下对所有进口商品征税从2%骤增至18%,”他解释道,“进口价格增速将超过工资,实际收入下降会抑制消费和投资,进而拖累经济。”

“滞胀风险有多大?”

库尔顿的新担忧是滞胀风险上升——即高通胀与高失业并存的噩梦情景。“美国尚未陷入滞胀,但正朝着物价上涨、失业增加的方向发展,”他表示,“这个威胁比一个月前真实得多。”

“关税会减少贸易逆差吗?”

库尔顿质疑特朗普政策能显著缩小逆差。虽然高价进口可能促使部分消费转向国内产品,但“外国企业不太可能迅速将产能转移至美国”。从根本上说,美国过度消费和投资不足才是逆差的根源——这需要外国美元回流来填补财政赤字。

如果库尔顿的预测成真,特朗普确实在改变美国经济——但很可能是朝着错误的方向。

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