With the wider market swaying, Bitcoin’s stable over-bearing performance is turning in the tariff drama – standing out from technology stocks, more like digital gold. Institutional traffic and policy shifts are testing $BTC’s maturity in real time. But what changes happened here before the conclusion was drawn, and what still exists. ~~Analysis @davewardonline ~~ �What's the difference now? In earlier Bitcoin cycles, halving events (when mining rewards are cut in half) triggered a large-scale price rally because the supply reduction rate is large compared to the total Bitcoin supply. This is no longer the case. The halving supply shock in 2024 is much smaller than the previous cycle and occurs in a more efficient overall market. Trading robots help with close price gaps between exchanges within seconds, and big investors use advanced strategies to prevent price volatility from being completely crazy. $BTC now averages over $10B daily, and bringing the price to about $250 million is to increase the price by 2%. As a result, Bitcoin volatility has dropped significantly compared to previous cycles. Although this damage crashes, it also lowers the price, making it much less than in the past cycle. This kind of stability is a good thing! This means our dear $btc is much more liquid, ultimately making it more attractive to institutions – the investor class will certainly rise to bitcoin. - Institutional Capital Flow The most obvious institutional proof? After the ETF approval, the profile of Bitcoin holders changed. In 2024, funds and ETFs are the largest net accumulators, adding more than $519,000 in BTC. Businesses added another $374,000 in BTC, a 31% increase from 2020, with a large portion of it coming from strategy and shackles. Only five companies control 82% of BTC held by all companies, showing how centralized corporate exposure is. Meanwhile, individual investors actually sold a net 525,000 BTC – a typical bull market pattern that reversed retail leads (H/T @River). This marks a wider handover from retail to institutions, from short-term hype to holding on the balance sheet, where deeper capital can develop new ways to make money. This institutional activity has been achieved through the expansion of global regulatory access. Since 2020, 47 countries have increased their chances of getting Bitcoin, while only four have restricted it. 34 countries have approved Bitcoin ETFs or ETPs, and the United States allows banks to custody bitcoin in 2025. - A new cycle This cycle is different from the previous bulls running under different macro conditions. From 2015 to 2017, the global M2 (measured by all funding for global supply) grew by 19.3%, and from 2018 to 2021, it [surges] D 33.0%. But this time, the global M2 increased by only 6.8%, meaning the rally was not driven by stimulus or over-liquidity. Instead, it is powered by new demand sources such as ETFs, while excitement is an increase in “legality” and adoption. This lower inflation environment, coupled with the stable impact of institutional capital, explains why Bitcoin volatility continues to decline while it is steadily rising, driven by excitement and macro sentiment. The continued growth of Bitcoin’s advantage here (relative to the market capitalization of altcoins) is a clear result since January 2022, and it is its steady climb, a pattern that has never been seen before. Bitcoin’s advantages did not reach its peak, but continued to strengthen Bitcoin’s advantages, reflecting the different current capital flows: In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s advantage will eventually be replaced by capital rotations – into ETH, professional and microcapsules. This time, this rotation never came, at least how people would expect it. Traffic is largely stuck in $BTC. Why • Because ETF streams have been closed: New inflows over $129B were entered this year through ETFs. But these profits don't spin into altcoins - they remain isolated in structured products. ETF models have built walls around Bitcoin capital. •Because institutions replace retail: Remember that in 2024, individuals sell $BTC online, while funds and companies accumulate. These actors are not chasing altcoins, but holding Bitcoin. Their risk appetite is low and their presence limits the spillover. •Retail skips the middle: The people in the game don't flow into $eth or $sol - they jump straight to Memecoin Casinos. As a result, Capital skipped the Grand Slam completely, focusing on the top ($btc) and bottom (micro), while the middle of the market is still hollowed out. Therefore, many people think that the old four-phase periodic model [$ btc → $ eth → Majors → micros] may not be anymore. Capital is either sitting in an ETF, held closely by institutions, or recycled in Onchain Casinos. �Where we might go If this cycle shows us anything, then Bitcoin may be playing a new role. In the past, the biggest gatherings were when liquidity flooded the system and interest rates dropped. But this time, something different happened: Bitcoin’s response to global events is more direct – sometimes causing market reactions, not just markers. We've seen this movie before. During the 2019 U.S.-China trade war, stocks stumbled as tariffs rose in May, but Bitcoin [Surge] d. Now, with tariff threats, changing U.S. policies and global tensions, Bitcoin’s stable performance and lack of correlation with technology stocks, it shows that it is seen as a “chaotic hedge”Here are three trends that can define our next step: •Bitcoin becomes digital gold: In the face of global volatility, Bitcoin begins to be more like a macro asset. In recent tariff headlines, its resilience suggests that the future it actually becomes the future of value store during uncertainty. As of 2024, $BTC inflation has officially dropped below gold - strengthening its claims to be the toughest fund ever. •Shorter and clearer: Altcoin Rallies may become black and white and more narratively driven if Bitcoin reacts to macro catalysts - ETF inflows remain in structured products. This is shown in the leveraged market data. We may have sudden outbreaks related to specific topics such as memes, AI, or RWA. •No more 90% drops: Bitwise CIO @matt_hougan believes this cycle can mark the collapse of Bitcoin’s familiar rhythm. The new U.S. executive order puts cryptocurrency as a national priority, coupled with inflows of spot ETFs, could bring trillions of dollars into the space. A bear market may still happen in the future, but may be shallower, shorter and more macro-driven. 🟧Eternal Story However, despite the possible changes, Bitcoin’s heart remains the same. Yes, the halving may no longer trigger inflows of instant gatherings and institutions, rather than retail, but the fundamentals are not gone – just evolved. Bitcoin is still limited to 21 million. Scarcity remains its core story, continuing to attract capital, curiosity and excitement. It is well known that it is not only an institutional capital that transfers the market. Retail FOMO, meme driven momentum and influencer hype will still be suddenly [Surge]s. Community can gather around narratives (whether it is a halving, a viral trend or a geopolitical shift) and move prices to fundamentals faster than fundamentals. As before, this halving is still a cultural gathering point – a financial holiday that reminds people of why everyone has Bitcoin. Even if its supply shocks prices earlier the activity itself continues to drive the sentiment driving the market. Then what will happen next? Bitcoin has obviously reacted more to global macro forces. The four-year cycle may be rupturing. ETF rails may be reshaping the way capital moves. But, despite this, some things still feel familiar. Scarcity, emotion and Internet beliefs remain the core engine of Bitcoin