Author: Zhang Dongfang

The EU's trade countermeasures require the consent of the vast majority of member states. The EU always hopes to find solutions through negotiation. A slowdown is to leave room and leave negotiation time.

Trump once threw the world into chaos with comprehensive tariffs. A week later, Trump suspended the tariff imposition of 75 countries for 90 days. At the same time, the tariff imposed on China, which was "head-on-head" was increased to 125%, plus the previous 20%, a total of 145%. All countries and regions, including the EU, breathed a sigh of relief. It turned out that the ultimate enemy Trump pursued was China, and other countries were runners.
When it comes to surrendering, in Trump-style language, it is to flatter and kneel down and beg for mercy. Trump showed off publicly, "I tell you, these countries are calling us and flattering me," "They are eager to reach an agreement. 'Sir, please, reach an agreement. I am willing to do anything." In Trump's fantasy, the best situation is that everyone kneels before him and surrenders to his majesty and power.
But such a thing cannot happen to China. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, "The Chinese do not cause trouble, nor are they afraid of trouble. Pressure, threats and blackmail are not the correct way to deal with China." Trump's annotation on his tariff measures is, "You cannot retaliate. If you retaliate, you will double the fight." On April 11, the Tariff Commission of the State Council of China issued an announcement stating that given that under the current tariff level, there is no possibility of market acceptance of the US goods exported to China, if the US continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will ignore it. ”
Compared with China's head-on battle, the EU looks like a stealthy person. When Trump announced a comprehensive tariff on the 20% tariff on the EU on the 2nd, the European Commission responded, not saying what was prepared for it.
On March 12, a few hours after Trump's 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imported into the United States came into effect, the European Commission quickly announced countermeasures, which made Trump angry. On the 13th, Trump posted on social media, saying, "The EU is one of the most hostile and abused taxes and tariffs in the world, and its sole purpose is to take advantage of the United States. It has just imposed a bad 50% tariff on whiskey. If this tariff is not immediately lifted, the United States will soon impose a 200% tariff on all wine, champagne and alcohol products from France and other EU representative countries. This will benefit the wine and champagne companies in the United States."
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik responded to Trump's 200% tariff threat in a media interview. He said the EU and Canada, which are tit-for-tat hikes with the United States, "disrespect" Trump, and Trump is already tired of it. "If you make him unhappy, he will respond unhappy." He also called the reactions of Britain and Mexico "pragmatic" and "deliberate".
With the teachings of Trump and the Trump administration, the EU has maintained relatively restrained this time.
But in fact, on April 9, the day the United States imposed reciprocal tariffs on the EU and dozens of countries came into effect, EU member states passed countermeasures to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products worth nearly 21 billion euros. The measure is divided into three parts. Measures involving 3.9 billion euros of trade are implemented on April 15, another 13.5 billion euros of measures will be implemented on May 16, and the last round of 3.5 billion euros of measures will be implemented on December 1. However, the EU's revenge is a slower revenge. The "trilogy" is actually to deal with Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that came into effect in mid-March, rather than reciprocal tariffs.
The slow pace of the EU comes from two reasons. First, it is related to the EU's organizational structure and decision-making. Trade countermeasures require the consent of the vast majority of member states, which destined to take longer to make decisions and have always faced different game of interest. In response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum, the European Commission originally planned to impose tariffs on U.S. imported products worth up to 26 billion euros and formulated a product list in mid-March, and dairy products and bourbon were removed from the retaliation list due to pressure from countries such as France and Italy. Secondly, Trump is no longer aggressive, and the EU always hopes to find solutions through negotiations. A slowdown is to leave room and leave negotiation time. Even in the EU's arsenal, there are "anti-coercive tools" and measures to combat US technology companies, the EU does not want further deterioration of relations with the US. After EU countries reached a consensus on countermeasures on the 9th, the European Commission said in a statement, "If the United States agrees to reach a fair and balanced negotiation result, these countermeasures can be stopped at any time."
On the 7th, European Commission President von der Leyen said that the EU has proposed a "zero to zero" tariff plan to the United States, that is, the EU is willing to reduce the EU's tariffs on automobiles and industrial products imported from the United States to zero. However, Trump rejected the plan and said the EU must promise to buy $350 billion worth of U.S. energy.
Of course, even a slow revenge and selective revenge are revenge, and it is carefully designed revenge. According to media POLITICO statistics and analysis, EU tariff measures will have an impact on exports worth up to $13.5 billion in US red states (states that support Republicans). For example, the number one target soybean on the retaliation list. The United States is the world's second largest soybean producer and exporter. In 2024, of the US exports worth $2.4 billion to the EU, $2.1 billion of which comes from states that support Trump. The EU is preparing to accurately strike Trump's voter base in order to hit Trump's sore spots.
However, a few hours later, Trump suspended the tariff increase on 75 countries that "supplicated" for 90 days, while at the same time, imposed tariffs on China to 125%. Trump's so-called "supplication" cannot be understood as a surrender to the EU, which had originally announced retaliation measures. Trump may not even notice that the EU has announced countermeasures. Trump's suspension is actually a "supplication" to strong external rebound and violent market turmoil, and his highest toughness to China also covers up this "supplication".
One day later, the EU announced a 90-day suspension of tariff countermeasures against the United States, and the European Commission said "we want to give negotiations an opportunity." European Commission spokesman said that European Commission Trade Commissioner Sevchovich went to Washington again on April 14 to seek negotiations, his third time since taking office in December last year.
Between surrender and hard-working, the EU is closer to surrender. However, the EU's temporary relief can only be temporary. Given that Trump's tariffs on China have reached a new height, the EU will face the problem of choosing sides again.