I said from the beginning that Trump is destined to compromise. The moment Trump played the card of tariffs, it actually announced the strategic contraction of the United States, although many people are unwilling to accept this judgment. But from the perspective of game theory, the ending of this game will not be a clear distinction between victory and defeat, but will end with a deal. On the one hand, the US's strategic contraction, and on the other hand, China's transformation from disorderly expansion to orderly extension.
This does not mean who wins and who loses, but that after both sides are fighting for the greatest bargaining chips for themselves, they re-establish the boundaries and rhythm, and then everyone continues to play the capital game of printing money and creating dreams.
It is true that Trump bows his head. The price of not bowing his head is much greater than some people imagine. This is not something that the seven giants such as Apple and Nvidia can control, just like what they said before. The ultimate game in politics is to maximize their respective interests. Obviously, Trump and us will not get the result of maximizing the benefits.
I can predict that he will compromise. It is because I have been paying attention to Sino-US friction for thirteen years. The final answer given by the market is that both sides are growing each other. The United States is still strong, and we are still strong. The short-term friction hopes to reach a new international trade consensus.
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