Judging from the US dollar indicator, it doesn’t make much sense to cut interest rates or not. The US index has weakened for three consecutive months~ $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

The neutrality of the Federal Reserve extends the current iron triangle relationship between the US dollar, US bonds and reserve currencies. Trump releases political pressure from the Federal Reserve to the outside world, which is destined to cause serious concerns in the financial market. The situation continues. I think the crypto market, with its technological neutrality, will soon usher in a dead tree. Trump is shifting all tariff contradictions to the Federal Reserve. He seriously doubts whether Trump has read "Theory of Contradictions" seriously using tariffs to mobilize external contradictions to cover up the main internal contradictions and use the main contradiction to fight internal secondary contradictions. At present, Trump is fighting Powell's secondary contradiction as the main contradiction. Trump failed to accomplish anything in just a few months after taking office, creating a lot of conflicts and diverting a lot of conflicts. Trump is now much crazy than his first term.

Trump is currently working hard to transfer tariff conflicts to deal with Powell and has opened fire on Powell. Knowing that Trump is a highly uncertain person, I thought Trump would bring extremely high uncertainty to the US stock market with highly concentrated liquidity. Now, what Trump has done far exceeds his first term. He said he was playing chess. He began to pay attention to the US trade deficit in the 1980s. He said he was smart. He wanted to bring the United States back to the industrial power in the late 18th and early 19th century. He used tariffs to offset personal income tax. It was a bit against Tiangang. On the other hand, Wall Street institutions have issued warnings of a decline in the long-term dominance of the US dollar, especially BlackRock CEO believes that the US dollar cannot become the dominant reserve currency in the long run. Regardless of whether China and the United States reconcile, US capital and companies will face huge business adjustments. Trump's cabinet Secretary of Treasury and senior advisers have presented two different ideas. Bescente warned Trump that the removal of Powell would trigger market turmoil, and the core lies in the independence of the Federal Reserve to extend the strong triangle structure of the US dollar, US bonds and reserve currencies. I think the internal contradictions in the United States are far greater than external contradictions. Some time ago, Trump initiated the rectification of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, and now Trump wants to rectify the Federal Reserve. At present, any financial market is political economy, and Trump's frequency of influence on the market is getting higher and higher. He is no longer engaging in politics in the financial market, but politicizing the financial market itself. The good news is that Powell supports the acceleration of the legislation and issuance of stablecoins for the first time. After the stablecoins are legislated, the currency circle should enter more giants and institutions, and the application of cryptocurrencies will also be greatly expanded. Many coins should soon win the dead tree, and maybe two or three weeks left, and maybe it will start next week. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

Trump once again called for the Fed to cut interest rates. If Trump really wants to undermine or substantially interfere with the Fed, the US dollar will depreciate rapidly, and it is very likely to become the largest black swan in the global financial market in the future. Digital currencies will usher in unprecedented prosperity, but the possibility of such a thing happening is extremely small. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

From a macro perspective, cryptocurrencies have entered a round of super fundamentals. The narrative comes from the demand for compliant stablecoins by sovereign countries, the demand for RWA by traditional funds, and the policy uncertainty brought by Trump have substantially accelerated the depreciation process of US dollar credit, and US dollar credit has entered a systematic revaluation stage. These fundamentals have opportunities to promote a new crypto bull market, US dollar->stablecoin->DeFi>Payment>RWA->Solidarity countries' basic financial facilities, in fact, whether interest rate cuts are not critical. The US dollar index has weakened, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is no longer a decisive variable of the strength of the US dollar. 2021 is a liquid bull market, and 2025 is a monetary structure bull market. The fundamentals are very similar to those before the last bull market. I even personally think that Trump's instability and the subsequent macro narrative are more solid than the previous bull market. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

If Trump holds the dream of using tariffs to cancel personal income tax, I suggest that both sides or multiple parties completely decouple from the United States. This move will lead to the restoration of the sub-colonial structure in the long run, and the US bonds, US stocks and US dollar will suffer unprecedented heavy blows. Trump insists on abolishing income tax with tariffs. This empire will be collapsed. Currently, funds supported by US stocks and US bonds are believed to improve. The United States has also entered the political and economic path. If Trump releases tariff income to the outside world and uses tariff income to cancel more than 2 trillion US dollars, forcibly interfere or undermine the Federal Reserve, the foundation of that beautiful empire will be shaken. Solving the trade deficit is a problem of productivity, not a tariff issue. Most trade deficits are caused by American companies' overseas bases to the United States. Therefore, we can see the huge profits of companies such as Apple and Tesla. With the current policies continuing, the US stock market is far from the end. Two weeks have passed since the tariffs. As I mentioned earlier, the 1 to 3 weeks is the counter-window window. The financial phenomenon at this time has no meaning. In fact, the rise of the United States is not that far away. 100 years ago, the United States was a semi-slavery country. A large number of factory workers needed to work for 16 to 18 hours. American workers proposed an 8-hour working system. The Soviet Union was the first to implement the 8-hour working system, and the 8-hour and five-day working system was also the first to implement the Soviet Union. During the entire World War II, the United States was an industrial machine like the world dumping war materials, and it was also a large sweatshop. This empire is not not learning history, but knowing that it is full of blood and sweat every step. After World War II, for the sake of talents, technology, victory, and not to fall behind, a large number of heavy war criminals and engineers from Germany and Japan were absorbed. You can see the shadow of German precision and the logic of Japanese modules under the steel skin of American machinery. It’s not that the United States does not study history, but that it cannot look directly at it. There were some things that were difficult to see in the early days of any empire, but the United States did the most. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

If the US empire holds up for one more day, the benefits will be much higher than the price it pays. With Trump's tariff scale on the first day lasting for three years, it is very likely that the US military will sell weapons to repay debts. In addition to the leading technology companies and financial institutions, the US empire is now a real leverage empire. The strongest thing in the United States is never tariffs or manufacturing return, but a national-level alliance system. Whether it is NATO, the Five Eyes Alliance, or the supply chain system of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan is also set up. The United States has highly tied up the world's interests by relying on the alliance. While printing money, maintaining stability, exporting the dollar financial order while locking the lifeblood of global high-end technology and industries, the most powerful place in the United States, no country has the hope of surpassing this strongest alliance in history. We never dreamed of being super American. The United States has drawn a military siege of "three chains and one circle" for us in military terms. Now one circle and one chain are useless. At most, the second chain will be broken in the next thirty years. We are not mainly hegemony in history, culture, geographical location, and strategic positioning. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

After this tariff war, asset diversification will be more abundant. What’s interesting is that no one cares about these things a month ago, no one cares about these things three months ago, and no one cares about these things half a year ago. No matter how tortuous the process is, the ending is destined to play a game of printing money to create dreams for a long time. This world has been firmly trapped by institutional debt, financial illusions and asset bubbles. It can only be maintained by printing money to continue dreaming. The United States does have the existence of human light in the field of science and technology, but capital has formed a certain stable class structure in a long-term moderate state. Is it possible that even if these people break the original deep government pattern, they themselves will become deep government? The reason for the deficit is multiple factors, not dependent on tariffs. Trump is destined to bow his head simply by putting pressure on tariffs. Many factors such as social system, wealth structure, etc. are combined. The wealth of the United States is consumed in scientific research projects such as medical care, life extension, brain machines, artificial organs, etc. every year at an astonishing rate. This part of the investment has long exceeded the US military's expenses. The world's rich people all have the dream of Qin Shihuang, and they invest a large amount of funds in the field of biomedicine. The huge investment is all for prolonging life. Scientific research results are also provided to a small number of groups to enjoy. The United States' investment in this field is the best for mankind. The imperial disease cannot be solved overnight. The structural problem is that it is not caused by mistake in choices, but the result of natural economic evolution. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

I said from the beginning that Trump is destined to compromise. The moment Trump played the card of tariffs, it actually announced the strategic contraction of the United States, although many people are unwilling to accept this judgment. But from the perspective of game theory, the ending of this game will not be a clear distinction between victory and defeat, but will end with a deal. On the one hand, the US's strategic contraction, and on the other hand, China's transformation from disorderly expansion to orderly extension. This does not mean who wins and who loses, but that after both sides are fighting for the greatest bargaining chips for themselves, they re-establish the boundaries and rhythm, and then everyone continues to play the capital game of printing money and creating dreams. It is true that Trump bows his head. The price of not bowing his head is much greater than some people imagine. This is not something that the seven giants such as Apple and Nvidia can control, just like what they said before. The ultimate game in politics is to maximize their respective interests. Obviously, Trump and us will not get the result of maximizing the benefits. I can predict that he will compromise. It is because I have been paying attention to Sino-US friction for thirteen years. The final answer given by the market is that both sides are growing each other. The United States is still strong, and we are still strong. The short-term friction hopes to reach a new international trade consensus. $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)

Powell criticized the traitors who shorted the United States. As I said, "I am not talking about domestic sniping US debt, but their insiders." The matter has not been discussed yet, so I will still give him some face. It’s really our sniping of national debt, which will only be more serious than it is now. The art of political game cannot be used to make his US debt at will~ $BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)